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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-5-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image-20240403161528-1
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image-20240403161546-2
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Ending lower for a 2nd straight session, the spot month NG contract fell 4% yesterday.  The decline occurred as stocks fell as expected last week, causing the market to shrug off the report. Gas demand was also being negatively impacted by major power outages that continued across the NE as a result of recent storms.  May futures settled 6.7 cents lower at $1.774.

 

image 92683
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Storage levels fell by 37 BCF last week, leaving total stocks at 2.259 TCF as of March 29. While aligning with estimates, the report was bullish versus historical comparisons.   The 5 yr avg surplus narrowed to 633 BCF while the year over year surplus is now at 422 BCF.  

Stocks have likely bottomed out for the year as next week’s report is expected to show an injection in the 10-20 BCF range.  This compares to the 5 yr avg build of 24 BCF and the year ago build of 11 BCF. Heating demand is expected to remain above normal over the next several days, potentially limiting the injection for the week ending April 12.

image 92684
Source: EIA/DOE

Res/comm demand has been on the rise so far this month with usage increasing from 22 BCF/day on Apr 1 to this morning’s high of 29 BCF/day.  This is 1.9 BCF higher day over day as temps remain below normal across the East and West.  

With more normal to above normal temps expected to emerge next week, heating demand levels will taper off.  We could see cooling demand gradually build in the South mid April as the weather pattern changes. 

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Source: NOAA
 

Prices are trading near flat this morning with the excessive stock level limiting the upside. 

LNG exports are coming in at 12.7 BCF/day, down 0.3 BCF while output is estimated this morning at 102.2 BCF/day, up 0.6 BCF/day.

Technical Analysis
 
image-20240405025709-1
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The May 24 natural gas contract nearly erased all the early week gains on Thursday as it turned back lower losing .067 (3.6%) to close the day at 1.774.

The May contract is testing key support at the 1.740-1.745 where the 10 and 40 day moving averages have converged and may be crossing into a bullish alignment (10 day above 40 day).

If support holds, the technical picture for the market will turn bullish as trend following indicators have been in a bullish alignment for the past month.

If 1.740-1.745 support holds, the 1.906 weekly high is near term resistance followed by the early-March high at 2.000-2.010.

If 1.740-1.745 support does not hold, the bottom of the open gap created last week during the April 24 expiration at 1.630 will become the next area of support.

Longer term support is at 1.481-1.511.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 49.34

Seasonal Prices
image 92688
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 92687
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 92686
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 92266
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 92265
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 92689
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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