By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
4-Year price deciles
Spot month gas prices soared past $6 yesterday for the first time since late January on lingering cold weather and supply concerns as the market braces for a storage withdrawal.
Support also stemmed from the possibility of additional sanctions on Russian, including coal. Despite this, TTF gas prices eased about 2%. Spot month US prices settled 32 cents higher at $6.032.
Output hit 95 BCF/day during late March but has since been tumbling. Early cycle nominations yesterday showed production levels down nearly 1.5 BCF/day, contributing to price gains. If correct, it would mark the biggest 1 day decline since extreme cold back in Feb.
The NWS says states across the western US have a 60% chance for below normal temps thru at least mid April. The cold is expected to move east into the Midcon region during the 8-14 day period.
Strength continues in nat gas with prices up another 5% this morning. Total demand is forecast to rebound to 96 BCF/day this weekend due to the colder weather.
The natural gas market remains in a very bullish uptrend with the spot May contract gaining .320 or 5.6% on Tuesday to close the session at 6.032.
Prices are sharply higher again this morning with the May contract currently up over .300 or 5% as it trades above the 6.300 level.
The 6.466 October 2021 high is the next area of resistance. Longer term resistance is the 7.346 spike high set in late-January.
While recent price action has been parabolic, current strength could be the final blow off top for this rally.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 76.84
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