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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-8-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles

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Fundamentals & weather

Nat gas prices shot higher as storage data flipped back to withdrawal mode, as late season cold prompted a surprisingly large drawdown.  further widening the deficit.   A greater appetite for US LNG added further support.  The spot month rose 5.5%, or 33 cents, to settle at $6.359, the highest spot month settle since Dec 2008.

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Coming in higher than expected, the EIA reported a withdrawal of 33 BCF for the week ended April 1, 7 BCF higher than expected.  Total gas in storage now stands at 1.382 TCF.  Deficits widened further last week with stocks now 409 BCF lower than last year and 285 BCF below the 5 yr avg.

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US shale and LNG firms met with EU energy officials over increasing US supplies to Europe as part of efforts to replace Russian imports. The need for more LNG infrastructure, especially in the NE, was highlighted.

LNG feedgas demand has been rising the past 3 days from 11.7 on Wed to 12.8 BCF/day as of today.  Feedgas demand is expected to average 12.7 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.

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Temps over the next 2 weeks will remain on the colder side across the West and Midcon.  Cooler temps could possibly extend the heating season, leaving intact or further expanding the deficit.  For the week in progress, analysts project a 28 BCF injection, followed by a 35 BCF injection for the week ending Apr 14

Production levels will be key for supply/demand.  Production is still struggling to regain momentum seen during Q4 of 2021.  Dry output is currently averaging about 93.2 BCF/day.

Technical Analysis
 
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The May 22 natural gas contract reversed course back higher on Thursday following Wednesday’s late day sell off as it gained .330 or 5.5% to close the day at 6.359.

Overnight buying has rallied the May contract above October 2021 weekly high resistance at 6.466.  If the rally holds, the late-January spike high at 7.346 will become the next area of support.

The market is on course for a 4th consecutively higher weekly close.  Trend following indicators remain bullish but are in areas considered “overbought” with daily RSI currently at 78.80 possibly warning of a near term pull back.

The market may be in a final blow off top for this move but prices will need to quickly reverse back lower.  Daily volume for the May contract on Thursday was very high at 199,510 contracts.  Volume spikes typically occur near market highs or lows.

6.400 is near term support followed by 6.000.  The 10 day moving average is currently at 5.840. 

Technical Indicators: 

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 78.80

 options table & Strip Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
 
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