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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-8-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image-20240408090546-1
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image-20240408090602-2
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Prices settled higher on Friday with support stemming from expectations for a continued pullback in production given the reduction in US gas drilling rigs.  The May contract settled 1.1 cents higher at $1.785. For the week, prices rose about 1% and marked the 3rd weekly increase in a row for the first time since Jun 2023.

 

image 92774
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Natural gas drilling rigs fell for a 3rd week in a row last week.  Gas rigs fell by 2 to 110 rigs, the lowest level since 2022.  Both rigs were operating in the Haynesville region. 

Output is back below 102 BCF/day as of this morning, coming in at 101.7 BCF/day.  This is down 0.4 BCF day over day and in line with Friday’s production estimate. Month to date, output is averaging 101.9 BCF/day. Production cutbacks have so far done little to alleviate the significant overhang in supply. 

image 92775
Source: EIA/DOE

Following colder weather last week that bumped up res/comm demand, a return to warmer conditions this week should weigh on consumption. Res/comm demand is coming in today at 20.8 BCF, down 5.5 BCF/day from Sunday and 7.4 BCF/day lower than Friday. Total demand for today is estimated at 98.1 BCF, 5.6 BCF lower on the day.  

Recent power outages in the NE and the impact of today’s solar eclipse on solar generation could temporarily dampen demand.  

​​image 92776
Source: NOAA
 

Prices are trading a couple cents higher this morning however some downside risk remains in place.  Trade is likely to remain rangebound near term as a warmer weather outlook and the supply surplus compete with reduced output.

Analysts say a major market focus for the coming months will be the pace of reductions in the surplus.  If the surplus doesn’t consistently trend lower at a sufficient rate, we could see prolonged cutbacks in production.

Technical Analysis
 
image-20240408091550-3
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The spot May 24 natural gas contract was nearly unchanged in last week’s trade closing Friday at 1.785, up .022 for the week.

The contract did hold above key support where the 10 and 40 day moving averages have converged.  The May contract has held above these two averages the past five sessions which could mark a bullish turning point back higher.

The 10 and 40 day moving averages are now in a bullish alignment along with the short and long term trend following indexes.

Last week’s 1.906 high is near term resistance followed by the early-March high at 2.000-2.010.  

The 10 and 40 day moving averages at 1.755 (10 day) and 1.740 (40 day) are primary support.  If broken, 1.630 and 1.481-1.511 will become the next areas of support.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 49.58

Seasonal Prices
image 92780
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 92779
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 92778
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 92266
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 92265
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 92781
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

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