

Nat gas prices continued to sell off yesterday amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The market has slumped on heightened trade tensions following Trumps new global tariff regime and China’s retaliation of tariffs on all its imports of US goods. May NG fell another 19 cents to settle at 3.465.

Rising tensions between the US and China have halted US LNG deliveries to China. China hasn’t imported any US LNG since February when it put a 15% counter tariff on US LNG in response to an earlier round of tariffs from the US. This is the longest US halt in deliveries to China since Trump’s first term. The tariffs have also weighed on LNG prices amid a decline across global commodity and equity markets.
Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show stocks rose by 56 BCF, which is more than 3 times higher than the 5 yr avg build of 17 BCF. If the estimate proves correct, stocks would rise to 1.829 TCF, further narrowing the deficit. The supply/demand balance eased about 2 BCF/day amid stronger output and a decline in demand as temps moderated. For the week in progress, a much smaller build of 7 BCF is expected due to cooler conditions and a dip on output.

Volatility remains high today with fundamentals mixed.
Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices have joined the collapse in pretty much every other asset class after losing .673 (16.2%) over the past three sessions.
The breakout last Friday by the May 25 contract under 10 and 40 day moving average support at the lower-4.000 level began downtrend.
Over the following two days of trade, weekly low support was broken on Monday at the 3.680 level which initiated fund liquidation. Funds were holding a long position of 230,000 according to the Commitment of Trader’s report released on Friday.
Volume has spiked sharply over the past three sessions with the May contract closing Tuesday at 3.465.
Overnight selling has dropped the May contract to the next area of support which is the 38% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.380.
If 3.380 support is broken, the 50% retracement at 3.015 will become the next area of support. This retracement is also the daily continuation chart 200 day moving average and former daily high resistance, now support.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 34.23






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