

After trading in both positive and negative territory on Friday, spot month gas prices ultimately closed lower on the day. The market traded mixed as the delays in the startup of Golden Pass LNG weighed against climbing feedgas flows to Freeport, suggesting the return to near full service. Speculation is mounting that Golden Pass will now not come online until the 2nd half of next year. This has caused the 2025 strip to begin weakening. June NG settled Friday’s session down 4.9 cents at $2.252. For the week, the contract was up about 5%.

Consumption so far this month is averaging 94.6 BCF/day, which is about on par with last year’s 94.8 BCF/day. While LNG feedgas has been steadily above 13 BCF/day since Friday, we are currently in a low demand time of year in regards to weather.
Weather models suggest light demand ahead with the 15 day period expecting to see comfortable temps across the northern 2/3 of the US. The Southern US will be the main driver of weather demand over the next 2 weeks. Readings throughout the South are expected average average warmer than normal with temps expected to reach the upper 80’s to mid 90’s. Maxar is projecting a total of 66.9 CDDs, lower than the 10 yr avg of 70.5 CDDs but higher than last year’s 58.1.
Wind output has taken a turn lower this month, causing more reliance on natural gas for power generation. Wind generation typically declines this time of year before leveling out over the summer.

The natural gas rig count was back up last week, rising by 1 to 103 rigs. Output climbed above 100 BCF/day over the weekend and is estimated this morning at 100.5 BCF/day.
Prices traded down early this morning but are now about 5 cents higher on the day.

The June 24 natural gas contract has closed up two consecutive weeks gaining .110 (5.1%) over the past five days of trade to close Friday at 2.252.
A bearish dark cloud cover Japanese candlestick formed on Friday which has been followed by lower trade today.
The 10 day moving average at 2.145 is primary support today. If this average is tested and holds, the trend should turn back higher.
Last week’s 2.344 high is near term resistance followed by 2.400-2.410 which is the top of an open gap on the daily continuation chart from late-January.
The 200 day moving average is the next area of resistance at 2.455.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -64.61






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