

Spot month gas prices rose 3% to a 15 week high during Wednesday’s trade following a drop in production, a small boost in LNG feedgas demand and expectations for stronger weather related demand over the next 2 weeks. June futures settled 7.2 cents higher at $2.416.

Today’s storage report covering the week ended May 10 is expected to show storage levels rose by a smaller than normal 77 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 2.64 TCF, narrowing the 5 yr avg surplus by 13 BCF and the year over year surplus by 16 BCF. Expectations for a dwindling of the surplus is is helping the market extend gains this morning.
Early estimates for the week in progress suggest an injection of 89 BCF.
Freeport has confirmed that all 3 of its trains are back in service, a positive development for the oversupplied market. Scheduled feedgas deliveries to Freeport have averaged about 1.9 BCF/day over the past 6 days, which is about 85% of capacity. Flows there are at the highest level since mid-january. The increase at Freeport has been partially offset by maintenance related reductions at other LNG export facilities. Feedgas demand estimates are coming in this morning at 13 BCF/day, up 0.6 BCF/day from yesterday.

Nat gas prices are rallying this morning ahead of what is expected to be a supportive storage report. June futures are currently trading 7 cents higher.

The June 24 natural gas contract continues to grind higher closing up 8 out of the past 10 sessions.
The June contract closed Wednesday’s session at 2.416, completely closing the late-January open gap on the daily continuation chart.
The 200 day moving average at 2.455 is the next area of resistance which will likely be tested today.
Another bearish divergence formed on the 60-minute chart with a lower high set on the trend following oscillators in comparison to a new price high on the chart. This could be a warning of an impending downside correction.
Daily RSI is also above 70, an area considered “overbought”, although not an outright sell signal.
10 day moving average support is at 2.285 today
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -71.16 (in overbought area)






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