

Following early session losses, nat gas prices ultimately jumped higher Wednesday. The spot month contract rose more than 6% on the day amid stronger demand expectations, higher flows to Freeport and expectations for a 4th straight lower than normal build. June futures settled 17.1 cents higher at $2.842.
Feedgas demand came in at 13 BCF/day on Wednesday as flows to Freeport were on track to reach an 11 month high of 2.2 BCF/day.

Today’s storage report is expected to show stocks rose 85 BCF in the week ended May 17. This would fall short of both last year’s build of 97 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 92 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 2.718 TCF. For the week in progress, another bullish injection of 88 BCF is expected. This compares to last year’s build of 106 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 104 BCF.
Output has rebounded this morning to 100.8 BCF/day, 0.9 BCF higher on the day. The increase was seen across the Texas and Rockies regions. Output is likely to continue trending higher next month as maintenance winds down. Analysts estimate production this summer will average about 100.6 BCF/day. Month to date, output is trailing May 2023 by 2.7 BCF/day.

Maxar’s outlook for June trends hotter across the West, southern Plains and Mid Atlantic while slightly cooler in the Mid South. This resulted in an increase of 5 CDDs to a total of 275 CDDs for the month, ranking 8th highest and higher than Jun 2023’s 224.9 CDDs. For July, the forecast remains unchanged with a total of 385 CDDs, ranking 12th hottest but lower than Jul 2023’s 393 CDDs.
The market has traded mixed this morning ahead of storage that is expected to show a lower than normal injection.

The natural gas market is on course for a 4th consecutive higher weekly close following another strong rally on Wednesday.
The spot June 24 contract found good buying interest on early weakness bottoming at a 2.609 morning low. By session’s close, the June contract had rallied to a 2.842 daily settle, up .171 or 6.4% on the day.
The trend remains up with the 78% retracement of the 2024 downtrend at 2.970 being the next area of resistance followed by 3.165, the final 88% retracement.
10 day moving average support is at 2.565 today, a few cents under Wednesday’s 2.609 low. Longer term support is the 200 day average at 2.455.
Daily RSI has been in the area considered “overbought” for 6 consecutive sessions with divergences continuing to form on the 60-minute chart. But the trend at this point remains very strong as buyers continue to enter on any weakness keeping the market in a very bullish uptrend.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -77.33






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




