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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 5-24-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
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Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices settled lower Tuesday as domestic production neared record highs while Canadian gas exports to the US are back at levels seen prior to wildfires in Alberta.  Exports are on track to hold at a 3 week high of 8.1 BCF/day for the 2nd straight day.  The return to normal gas flows helped gas prices plunge earlier this week as Canada provides about 8% of gas consumed in the US. June futures settled 7.9 cents lower at $2.321.

 

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Platts is calling for a return to triple digit injections following last week’s bullish report.  Platts predicts a build of 101 BCF which would surpass the 5 yr avg build of 96 BCF and last year’s 88 BCF injection.  

Mild weather left overall demand near seasonal lows last week however gas fired power demand is averaging 4.8 BCF/day higher than its 3 yr avg.  This could cause the build to come in near the low end of estimates.  

 

 

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Soft LNG exports are limiting upward price action. Platts estimates feedgas demand this month is averaging 12.8 BCF/day, up 0.5 BCF/day from May 2022.
US output has risen to an average of 101.5 BCF/day this month per Reuters, which would top April’s monthly record of 101.4 BCF/day.  Dry output is anticipated to maintain levels above 101 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks. 
 
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Prices are trading higher this morning despite unimpressive near term weather outlooks.  Without a lack of any real summer heat, demand should remain light over the next 2 weeks.  

Technical Analysis
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Friday’s expiring June 23 natural gas contract closed down for a 2nd day on Tuesday holding in a fairly narrow .089 daily range before closing the day at 2.321, down .086.

Prices are up today after the June contract held above three point trend line support beginning at the 2.031 contract low.

Last week’s 2.685 high remains primary resistance.  There is also a small open gap between 2.570-2.600 created on Monday’s open.

Trend line support is near the 2.317 overnight low.  A close under this support will turn 2.140-2.150 and the 2.031 contract low into the next areas of support.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index –49.70

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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