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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-14-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
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Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month nat gas prices rose Tuesday on forecasts for hotter weather during the latter half of June and a drop in output.  Texas is expected to see record heat this week which will boost power burn.  Price gains were capped by lower LNG exports which are down because of maintenance on export terminals.  July NG settled 7.4 cents higher at $2.34. 

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Platts is calling for a build of 95 BCF in the week ended June 9, which would further add to the surplus.  The number will compare to last year’s build of 94 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 84 BCF. Estimates are lower than the previous week’s stock build as total demand last week rose 3 BCF/day from the previous week while a small decline in output was offset by higher Canadian imports. Early estimates for the week in progress suggest another above average build of 96 BCF.  

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The supply/demand balance could tighten in the coming weeks due to approaching warmer temps, lower output in Haynesville as maintenance there gets underway and less gas than expected in the South Central region. 
Platts projects total demand will average 93.9 BCF/day over the next 7 days and will rise to an average of 96 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period.  
 
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Both the 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts are trending cooler this morning with the near term patten remaining representative of an omega block.  The West trends cooler in the 6-10 day period while hot conditions remain in Texas and much below normal readings persist in the NW.  

During the 11-15 day period, temps trend cooler in the Midwest and South and warmer across the West.    

Technical Analysis
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The July 23 natural gas contract trended higher for a second day on Tuesday after holding above key support on Monday’s low closing the day at 2.340, up .074 (3.3%).

Second day settle above the 10 day moving average on Tuesday is supportive heading into today’s trade with 2.380 being near term resistance followed by the 40 day moving average at 2.435.

Longer term resistance is a 2-point trend line beginning at the early-March 3.020 high currently near 2.600.  A breakout above 2.600 will turn the longer term trend back up.

10 day moving average support is at 2.275 today followed by lower trend line support at 2.200.

Moving Average Index – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 49.08

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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