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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-17-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles

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Fundamentals & weather

The nat gas market swung heavily in both directions Thursday. After rising over 8% to the 40 day moving average prior to storage data, an above average build during the week ended June 10 helped impede the rally.  Prices rose prior to the report as weather forecasts continue to show hot weather through at the least the end of the month. July futures settled 4.4 cents lower at $7.464.

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The EIA reported gas in storage rose 92 BCF for the week ended June 10.  The previous week’s level was also revised higher by 4 BCF, leaving total gas in storage at 2.095 TCF.  The build was more than triple last year and 13 BCF above the 5 yr avg, leaving the 5 yr avg deficit at 323 BCF. 
Looking ahead to next week’s report, early estimates suggest an injection between 55 and 65 BCF, which is reflective of strong gas fired power generation demand. 

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Near term forecasts remain favorable for strong cooling demand over the next few days.  While the current heat wave begins to moderate, another round of heat will develop over the central US late this weekend and remain in place for the next 7-10 days.  Projected GWDDs for June 16-29 are the highest in the last 5 years. 

 

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Gas prices are currently trading lower on the day.  According to Platts, power burn is down 1.4 BCF from yesterday's year to date high of 44.6 BCF/day.   Power burn should continue to ease lower the next few days before another round of heat propels it back higher. 
Technical Analysis
 
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The July 22 natural gas contract rallied sharply higher in Thursday’s early trade as it briefly traded above the 8.000 area which was an 8% gain from Wednesday’s close.

But late day selling erased much of the early gains at the contract closed the session at 7.464, up .044.

Thursday’s daily high held under 40 day moving average resistance which keeps the market in a near term sideways to lower trend.
 

Weekly low support is at 7.000 followed by the 50% retracement support of the December-June uptrend at 6.600.

The 40 day moving average at 8.110 today remains primary resistance.

Trend following indicators remain in a bearish alignment and the 10 day average appears ready to bearishly cross under the 40 day average.  

Technical Indicators: 

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 41.98

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Forward Curve Pricing
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