

Nat gas prices extended their rally for a 3rd straight session Tuesday with support stemming from forecasts calling for a spike in cooling demand, supply concerns due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and steady production. LNG feedgas demand is also expected rebound later this month as spring pipeline maintenance concludes. July futures settled 10.3 cents higher at $3.851.

Due to tomorrow’s Juneteenth holiday, the EIA will release storage data today at 11 am CT. Estimates project an injection of 98 BCF for the week ended June 13. This compares to last year’s build of 72 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 72 BCF. If correct, the 7 week record tying triple digit injection streak would come to an end.
For the week in progress, a build of 81 BCF is expected which compares to the 5 yr avg build of 79 BCF and last year’s build of 59 BCF.
Production levels have been mostly steady, averaging more than 105 BCF/day over the past week. Month to date, output is averaging 105.2 BCF/day, up 3.7 BCF/day from June 2024. Output this morning is estimated at 104.9 BCF/day, down 0.7 BCF/day from Tuesday.
Significant heat is set to expand into the Midwest and East over the next 5 days with temps likely to challenge record highs over the next 10 days. The 11-15 day outlook maintains widespread above normal warmth, stretching from the Interior West through the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic.

The rally has extended into today’s session with the spot month trading more than 10 cents higher on the day.
Technical Analysis

The July 25 natural gas contract has been heavily bid over the past two sessions after breaking out above 10 day moving average resistance in Monday’s early trade.
Over the past two sessions, the July contract has gained .270 (7.5%) closing Tuesday at 3.851, a 6-week high.
The 50% retracement of the from the March 4.901 high down to the April 2.851 low was reached yesterday at 3.880. The 61.8% retracement becomes the next resistance at 4.120.
Daily continuation chart 10 day moving average support is at 3.670 today followed by the 40 day average at 3.480 which is near where the July contract bottomed last week at 3.453.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 61.85






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