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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-2-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles

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Fundamentals & weather

Despite less probability for hot weather during the first half of June, nat gas prices posted a significant rally for the first day of June.  Strength stemmed from forecasts for a bullish weekly storage report while power demand in TX hit monthly record highs. July futures ended Wednesday’s session 55.1 cents higher at $8.696.  

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Today’s storage data covering the week ended May 27 is expected to show a smaller than normal build of 86 BCF.  This compares to last year’s build of 100 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 100 BCF.  If the estimate is correct, stocks would rise to 1.898 TCF.  The estimate is due to high coal prices and low wind power that caused generators to burn more gas.  Hot weather in the midsection also boosted cooling demand.

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The probability for hot weather across the Midcon and NE during the first half of June appears to be waning.  The latest NWS 8-14 day outlook shows temps in those regions are now expected to run below normal thru June 15.  Above normal temps will cover the southern quarter of the US into portions of the SE and West.  

Yesterday marked the first day of hurricane season and as of this morning, we are watching Invest-91 which is expected to reach tropical depression today or tomorrow just off the Yucatan. 

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While we are seeing some improvement in production, bulls will continue to drive prices higher until we see more meaningful gains.  With seasonal pipeline maintenance wrapping up at the end of June, dry output could push toward December’s record high near 97.5 BCF/day. Platts estimates output for today at 94.6 BCF/day.
Prices continue higher this morning in anticipation of supportive storage data. 
Technical Analysis
 
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The July 22 natural gas contract reversed course back higher on Wednesday coming within .030 of erasing all the previous day’s losses as it gained .551 (6.8%) to close the day at 8.696.

Daily settle back over 10 day moving average support on Wednesday is a bullish factor heading into today’s session with 9.000 being near term resistance.

Longer term resistance is last week’s 9.447 high.  A breakout above this high will turn the December 2000 monthly high at 10.200 into the next area of resistance.

10 day moving average support is at 8.660 followed by 8.118 weekly low support.  

Technical Indicators: 

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 60.75

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Forward Curve Pricing
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