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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-22-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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StoneX Market Indicator History
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Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices erased early declines to settle Wednesday’s trade higher as bullish sentiment intensified amid heat in Texas and a drop in output.  The session ended up more than 4% with July futures settling at $2.597, 10.5 cents higher on the day. 

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Today’s EIA report is expected to show stocks rose 91 BCF in the week ended Jun 16.  A build in line with estimates would outpace both the 5 yr avg injection of 86 BCF and last year’s build of 76 BCF.  Today’s number will be a good indication of whether last week’s surprisingly bullish injection was a one off or a true sign of tighter fundamentals.

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Hot weather, particularly across TX, is boosting power demand.  Power burn has risen to an average of 39 BCF/day over the past week, up from the previous week’s average of 37.5 BCF/day.  
Forecasts show a strong chance for temps to heat up late June into early July across much of the Western US, the lower midcontinent, the Gulf Coast and Texas.  As a result, power burn is expected to surge to 40.1 BCF/day over the next week and to 45 BCF/day by early July. 
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LNG gas flows remains low due to ongoing maintenance work.  Flows this week have averaged 11 BCF/day.  Platts projects feedgas demand will remain near this level for the next 2 weeks. 

Tropical Storm Bret remains a non-threat to Gulf production as forecasts show it dissipating in the Caribbean this weekend.  Another system in the Atlantic has an 80% chance of strengthening over the coming days. 

Prices are trading flat to higher this morning.  

Technical Analysis
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A strong close for the July 23 natural gas contract on Wednesday as early morning weakness bottomed on 40 day moving average support.

With support holding, the contract reversed back higher into the close finishing the day at 2.597, up .105.

For a 2nd time this week, the July contract is testing 2.600 “breakout” resistance.  The July contract reached a 2.696 high on Tuesday before the rally failed.

Today will be another key test of resistance.  A close above Tuesday’s 2.696 high will turn the primary trend bullish.

However, there is a better chance the rally will fail keeping the market in a sideways range.

40 day moving average support is at 2.440 today followed closely by the 10 day average at 2.430.

Moving Average Index – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Relative Strength Index -57.40

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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