

Nat gas prices traded in both positive and negative territory early Monday before decidedly turning higher as the market shifts its focus from production levels to increasing cooling demand. Following a brief cool off early this week, another round of heat is expected mid week across the Midwest and East. Heat will remain consistent across the ERCOT region with highs in the upper 90’s/100’s.Tomorrow’s expiring Jul nat gas contract settled 10.6 cents higher at $2.811.

With record setting heat likely to continue into early July, the surplus is expected to further narrow on increased cooling demand. The next 3 storage reports all expected to come in well below normal.
Power burn expected to average 45.3 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks which would be 9.4 BCF/day above normal.
Maxar’s Monday forecast trended cooler from Friday, losing 5.3 CDDs with the largest change during the mid 6-10 day period. Despite the cooler changes, the outlook still remained anomalously hot, ranking 3rd hottest for the 6-10 day period and 2nd hottest for the11-15 day period and will be hottest on record for the entire 1-15 day period.

Despite supportive weather trends, prices are trading lower this morning amid rebounding production.

The July 24 natural gas contract reversed course back higher in Monday’s session gaining .106 (3.9%) to close the day at 2.811.
Daily volume was extremely low at 45,418 contracts which likely indicates much of yesterday’s rally was short covering after closing down 6 out of the past 7 sessions.
The July contract also settled under 7-month trend line resistance briefly broken two weeks ago which is another bearish indicator heading into today’s session.
At this point, the near term trend remains down with Monday’s 2.635 low being the first area of support followed by the 40 day moving average currently at 2.570.
38% retracement support of the 2024 uptrend is at 2.520 and will be an important support area if reached.
Once support is found, a rally back toward the 3.159 high set two weeks ago is expected.
Trend line and 10 day moving average resistance is at 2.860-2.880 today basis the daily continuation chart.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -53.96






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