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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 7-10-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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StoneX Market Indicator History
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Fundamentals & Weather

Natural gas sold off hard last week, falling nearly 8% as a lack of heat has kept the upside in check.  Friday’s trade saw spot month gas prices trade lower on bearish production, a healthy injection and a rise in the number of drilling rigs. Aug futures settled down 2.7 cents at $2.582.  

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Prices are trading higher this morning as heat across the mid section of the US is starting to come into play.  While near term weather does not appear to be real hot, much warmer temps are expected to move in during mid to late July.  The next 15 days are forecast to yield 200.4 CDDs which would rank 6th hottest for the period.  

 

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Working gas in storage rose 72 BCF in the week ended June 30.  The implied flow to storage was 68 BCF with the remaining 4 BCF a reclassification from base gas to working gas in the South Central region.  The implied flow was higher than historical comparisons, adding more cushion to the already sizable surplus.  Total stocks stand at 2.877 TCF, 366 BCF above the 5 yr avg and 575 BCF above last year.    
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LNG feedgas has picked up significantly this month.  Total feedgas demand as of Friday was averaging 13 BCF/day for the month, up from June’s average of 11.5 BCF/day. 

The natural gas rig count rose 11 on Friday to 135 rigs.  This marked the first increase in 10 weeks and was the biggest weekly increase in gas rigs since Oct 2016.  The market appears to have shrugged this off, focusing instead on upcoming heat across much of the country

 

Technical Analysis
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The August 23 natural gas contract was under selling pressure during much of last week’s holiday-abbreviated trade losing .215 (7.7%) during the 4-days of trade to close Friday at 2.583.

Prices have reversed course back higher in today’s early trade erasing nearly half of last week’s losses after the August contract held above a key area of support on Friday.

This support which held on Friday was the 40 day moving average as well as the upper trend line for a bullish descending wedge triggered three weeks ago.

With support holding on Friday, the primary trend remains sideways to higher with the 10 day moving average at 2.710 being the first area of resistance today.

The 2.936 high set in late-June is the next area of resistance followed by the early-March high at 3.026.  Longer term resistance is the point 1 of the descending wedge at 3.563.

40 day moving average support is at 2.570 today followed by upper wedge trend line support at 2.470.  As long as the August contract holds above trend line support, the bullish wedge pattern will remain viable.

Moving Average Index – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index -52.88

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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