

Gas prices tumbled Wednesday on cooler forecasts for the Central US, a lack of heat in Texas and expectations for a growing supply surplus. The market recovered some of its early losses by the afternoon as production retreated for a 2nd day. Aug futures settled 12.6 cents lower at $3.214.

For the week ended July 4, stocks are expected to rise 58 BCF, which falls between last year’s build of 61 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 53 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 3.011 TCF. Early injection estimates for next week’s report range from 40 to 64 BCF with an average build of 46 BCF expected. The following 2 weeks are also expected to come in above the 5 yr avg comparisons.
Production has pulled back from Monday’s level of 106 BCF/day falling to 104 BCF/day yesterday. Output is currently estimated at 104.1 BCF/day.
LNG feedgas demand fell to 15.4 BCF/day yesterday. Further maintenance at Cheniere Energy facilities has pressured feedgas demand after nominations returned to near record highs last week. Maintenance is still underway at Corpus Christi and on the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line that feeds Sabine Pass.

Prices are trading higher this morning following a near 20 cent loss the past 2 days.
Feedgas demand has ticked higher this morning to 106 BCF/day according to Platts with the gains attributed to a rebound at Corpus Christi and a small increase at Plaquemines.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract closed down for a 2nd day on Wednesday trading down to a new 9-week low at 3.149 before settling at 3.214. For the day, the contract was down .126 (3.8%) on moderate volume of 217,203 contracts.
Market momentum continues to shift lower with 10, 40 and 200 day moving average alignment turning more bearish this week with the with the breakout under 200 day moving average support on Tuesday.
Wednesday’s 3.149 low is near term support followed by 3.000. Longer term support is the 2.859 April low.
3.290-3.300 is near term resistance followed by the daily continuation chart 200 day moving average at 3.420. The 10 day average has crossed under the 200 day average for the first time since last October.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 42.66






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



