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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 7-17-2026

Heather Wine
Heather Wine

Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260717091457-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Aug nat gas fell 6.6 cents Thursday to settle at $2.858 as strong domestic production and reduced LNG feedgas demand continued to offset heat driven power sector gains. Ongoing maintenance at Freeport LNG has further limited demand growth, helping keep spot month prices below the psychologically important $3.00 level. While yesterday's storage report ended a 3 week run of bearish injections, the market remains well supplied.

The 6-10 day forecast lacks significant heat across the Midwest and East with hotter conditions expected across the West and farther South.

Source: NOAA

Coming in slightly under expectations, the EIA reported an injection of 41 BCF for the week ended July 10, lifting total gas in storage to 3.024 TCF. The build was supportive vs historical levels, narrowing the 5 yr avg surplus to 181 BCF while the year over year surplus widened to 21 BCF. Stronger power sector demand boosted total consumption last week by about 3.4 BCF/d.  

Market balances have loosened this week with total demand holding steady while domestic production and flows from Canada have increased.  Early estimates point to a 54 BCF build for the current week, well above both the 5 yr avg injection of 30 BCF and last year's 27 BCF build.

image 134394Source: StoneX

Power burn has remained robust, averaging 51 BCF/d over the past 4 days supported by intense heat across the Midwest and Northeast and reduced wind and solar generation in Texas. Power burn is expected to decline over the coming week as temps turn more seasonal across the East.

Feedgas demand continues to be constrained by ongoing maintenance at Freeport LNG. Flows were estimated near 16.6 BCF/d Thursday, above Wednesday's 15.9 BCF/d but still well below recent highs approaching 19 BCF/d. Feedgas flows this morning are estimated at 17.2 BCF/d.

image 134395
Source: StoneX

image-20260717091530-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The August 26 natural gas contract traded down to a new 6-week low at 2.823 on Thursday but trended back higher into the close settling back over 2.850 support with a 2.858 daily close.

A drop under Thursday’s 2.823 low will turn 2.690-2.700 and the late-April 2.483 low into the next areas of support.

2.968 is weekly high resistance followed closely by the daily continuation chart 10-day moving average currently at 3.015.

10,40 and 200 day moving average alignment is bearish as are the short and long-term trend following indexes suggesting lower prices ahead.  

The 3-year seasonal trend points toward August as the month when a post-summer low forms.

Moving Average Alignment - Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index –  37.46

image 134392

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 134390

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 134391

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 133845

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 133844

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 134393

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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