

The spot month Aug contract settled nearly unchanged on Friday with markets affected by the global Microsoft issue. Expectations for light weather demand over the weekend were offset by a drop in production heading into the weekend and recovering feedgas flows. After gaining 9 cents on Thursday following bullish storage data, prices remained in a tight range most of Friday’s session. Aug futures settled 3 ticks higher at $2.128. For the week, prices fell about 9%, marking the 5th weekly decline in 6 weeks.

Nat gas prices have rebounded this morning as the recovery of Freeport LNG continues. Flows to Freeport on Sunday topped 0.7 BCF/day and are expected to reach 1 BCF/day today. This suggests the possible startup of a 2nd train. Total feedgas demand is estimated to reach 11.4 BCF/day for Monday.
Over the weekend, a force majeure on ANR Pipeline cut feedgas flows to Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal due to an equipment failure. Flows to the terminal fell to 0.74 BCF/day Sunday and are set to recover today to 1.2 BCF/day.
Production levels have fallen from early July highs of more than 102 BCF/day. Output has fluctuated over the past week by more than 1 BCF/day. Output rose to 101.7 BCF/day over the weekend and is estimated at 101.5 BCF/day today. Month to date, output is averaging 101.2 BCF/day, which is 1.1 BCF/day lower than 2023.
Gas drilling rigs rose by 3 last week to 103 total rigs, the highest level since mid May.

As mentioned, prices are on the rebound this morning with the spot month trading up more than 10 cents. Gains extend out thru the 2025 strip.
Aside from a recovery in feedgas demand, power burn is expected to rise as we head into August with temps heating back. Additionally, the outlook for gas fired demand this fall has grown more supportive with the NWS predicting unseasonably warm temps through October.

A late day rally on Friday closed the August 24 contract back over 2.125 support broken earlier in the week as it settled the day at 2.128. For the week, the contract was down .201 or 8.6%.
Friday’s volume was low at 101,992 contracts likely indicating short-covering ahead of the weekend after failing to push under the 2.000 level.
Continued buying today has the August contract testing 10 day moving average resistance on the daily continuation chart at 2.210. If resistance holds, the near term trend will remain down.
Last week’s 2.015 low is primary support followed by the 78% retracement support of the 2024 uptrend at 1.850.
If 10 day moving average resistance is broken, former 50% retracement support at 2.320 will become the next area of resistance.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -41.99






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