

Nat gas prices extended the downside for a 3rd straight session on Wednesday as weather models continued to moderate while LNG feedgas flows have declined from recent highs. Today’s storage report is also expected to show a larger than normal addition. The Aug contract fell 17.5 cents to settle at $3.077. So far this week, the spot month contract is down nearly 49 cents.

For the week ended July 18, stocks are expected to have risen by 33 BCF, which compares to the 5 yr avg build of 30 BCF and last year’s build of 20 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 3.085 TCF as of July 18. Early injection estimates for the week ending Jul 25 range from 33 BCF to 56 BCF with the avg increase at 42 BCF. Any build within this range would outpace both last year and the 5 yr avg comparisons of 18 BCF and 24 BCF, respectively.
The market continued to discount near term heat yesterday that has taken hold across the Central and Southern US as power burn has yet to reach record highs set earlier this summer. With some of this summer's hottest temps expected early next week, power burn levels are expected to rise. The 7 day outlook shows power burn averaging 50.4 BCF/day with the 8 to14 day period averaging 45.6 BCF/day. This morning’s power burn estimate is up 1.3 BCF/day at 49.5 BCF/day.
As we head into early August, heat will continue across the south while cooler changes occur across the upper Midwest into the NE.

Prices are trading higher this morning as production levels have fallen back towards 105 BCF/day driven by the NE and SE regions. Daily demand levels are also ticking higher.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract has lost .488 (13.9%) including a .175 (5.4%) loss on Wednesday over three trading days this week.
The August contract traded down to a 3-month low at 3.061 on Wednesday before closing the day at 3.077.
Prices have rebounded ahead of today’s weekly storage report.
Yesterday’s 3.061 low for the August contract is technically important as it coincides with the 200 day moving average on the 2026 strip at 4.060
If 3.061 support is broken, 3.000 and the 2.859 April low will become the next downside support levels for the August contract.
Former support at 3.149 broken on Wednesday is near term resistance followed by 3.200-3.210.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 39.72






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