

Early session losses dried up yesterday amid bargain buying following the holiday weekend. Strong production levels and lackluster demand expectations kept the upside limited. Near term weather outlooks are also weighing on market sentiment. The August contract settled Monday’s session with a 0.3 cent gain at $3.412.

Production levels have been strong to start July, averaging 105.7 BCF/day. Producers are bracing for a near term rebound as well as long term increase in LNG feedgas demand. After hitting more than 106 BCF/day last week, production has tapered off as of this morning. Platts estimates dry output at 104.1 BCF/day, 1.5 BCF/day lower than Monday.
LNG feedgas demand has been steady, averaging near 15.5 BCF/day over the past week. LNG flows are expected to remain at an average of 15.4 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.
Demand levels will be supported this week by near record heat in the Southwest with daily records expected to be hit. This morning’s forecast shifted warmer for the East later this week into next week while the Mid-Atlantic also faces warmer risks The Pacific NW will experience the hottest temps versus normal during the 6-10 day period.

Nat gas prices are trading mixed this morning with balance of summer and the winter 25/26 strip trading lower on the day while summer 2026 is up slightly.
Technical Analysis

The gap lower open during the combined Friday and Monday sessions for the August 26 natural gas contract failed to hold.
After bottoming at a 3.275 low in Monday’s early trade, the August contract turned back higher to close finishing the day at 3.412, up 3 ticks.
Even with yesterday’s recovery, the overall technical picture appears weak as daily continuation chart 10 and 40 day moving average alignment is now bearish along with the short term trend following index.
10 day moving average resistance is at 3.455 today followed by the 40 day average at 3.535.
Monday’s 3.275 low is near term support followed by the 3.199 late-June low.
Longer term support is the 2.859 low set in April.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 45.74






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




