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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 8-12-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Storage levels rose more than expected last week however the injection was not large enough to help narrow the deficit.  Markets shrugged off the storage data, falling a nickel post report, before quickly moving back higher. Talk surrounding Freeport and a drop in output helped support an 8% surge in spot month prices yesterday.  Sep futures settled 67.2 cents higher at $8.874.

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Stocks rose 44 BCF in the week ended Aug 5, leaving total gas in storage at 2.501 TCF.  Storage is 268 BCF lower than last year and 338 below the 5 yr avg. The biggest surprise was a 9 BCF addition in the South Central region as Gulf Coast salt dome supplies typically decline mid summer.  If this year’s 5% below normal injection pace continues, stocks will end the season near 3.3 TCF.   

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Wind generation continues to underperform in the ERCOT region. A low wind pattern is expected to continue in the coming days.

Freeport LNG is still pulling in small amounts of nat gas from pipelines to fuel a power plant at its nat gas pretreatment facility.  About 22 mcf/day of gas flowed to the plant from July 19 thru early this week. 

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Prices are down about 3% this morning as preliminary output estimates are up 0.4 BCF/day at 94.9 BCF. Power burn also continues lower to end the week, coming in this morning at 40.5 BCF, down 4.4 BCF on the day.
The 8-14 day forecast also remains pretty bearish with much of the US expected to average below normal.  The NW and NE remain an exception with below normal readings expected in those regions.
 
Technical Analysis
 
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The September 22 natural gas contract was up sharply on Thursday for a 2nd day gaining .672 or 8.2% to close the day at 8.874.

The September contract is up 1.041 or 13.3% over the past two session.  Whether or not this is the beginning of a new uptrend or merely a massive short squeeze should be answered over the next few days of trade.

Prices are down today after the September reached the final 88% retracement resistance of the recent downtrend at on Thursday’s 8.995 high.
 

 

If 8.995 resistance is broken, the 9.419 high set three weeks ago will become the next upside objective.

8.500-8.520 is near term support followed by the 10 day moving average at 8.170.

Technical Indicators:  

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 60.23

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Forward Curve Pricing
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