

The spot month gas contract managed to rally for a 5th consecutive session on Monday. Weather outlooks, LNG demand and continued production cuts all fed into yesterday’s gains. The possibility for an atypical summer withdrawal is also contributing to upward momentum. The Sep contract settled up 4.6 cents at $2.189.

Maxar maintains its outlook for temps to turn warmer than normal across the Interior West into Texas and the Gulf Coast. Strong regional demand is expected in the SW and Texas as temps reach into the 90’s and 100’s. Maxar’s 11-15 day outlook shows persistent warmth from the SW to Texas and near normal readings from the Midwest to the East Coast.
Demand levels are expected climb over the next 2 weeks as power burn rises from a 7 day average of 45.6 BCF/day to 48.1 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period.
Production continues to come down but remains in the middle of its recent top and bottom of 104 BCF/day and 96 BCF/day, respectively. Ramped up pipeline maintenance has reduced output to under 102 BCF/day recently with more projects set to begin this week. Shut ins have also contributed to slowing output, particularly in Marcellus Shale.
Output this morning is estimated at 101.7 BCF/day. Platts projects production will average 102 BCF/day over the next 2 week.

The spot month is currently trading higher on stagnant production and talk over a possible withdrawal in this week’s storage report while the winter strip is lower on the day.

The spot September 24 natural gas contract has closed up 5 consecutive session’s settling Monday at 2.189, a 3-week high.
The 2.270 is near term resistance with the September contract topping out at a 2.256 on Monday.
2.350 is the 38% retracement of the June-August downtrend. It also coincides with the 200 day moving average on the daily continuation chart and will be an important resistance area to watch.
If 2.350 resistance is reached and broken, 2.500 (50% retracement) and 2.654 (6.18% retracement) will become the next upside objectives.
Longer term, once the current uptrend runs its course, renewed weakness is expected.
10 day moving average support is at 2.070 today with longer term support at 1.856 where the spot contract bottomed two weeks ago.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -52.17






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



