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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 8-15-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
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Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices settled higher to start the week amid lower supply and lingering heat that will keep demand strong into next week. The  The relationship between US and European prices appears to be fading as the TTF contract fell more than 2% yesterday after opening higher.  Sep futures settled 2.5 cents higher at $2.795.

 

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Prices are trading about 10 cents lower this morning as demand is estimated to be down about 2 BCF/day amid a 2.3 BCF/day drop in power burn. US output remains strong while LNG exports are still coming in below capacity.  

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Power demand in TX hit an all time high 3 times last week and will likely break that record again this week as triple digit temps linger across the South.   Heat is forecast to exceed the existing peak load record Thur and Fri.  The state’s power grid has held up well this summer due to help from wind powered electricity.  Wind generation in Texas however is falling which will boost its dependence on gas fired power generation.  

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The EIA is projecting a decline in shale output next month to the lowest level since May.  Nat gas output in the 7 shale basins is projected to decline by about 0.15 BCF/day in Sep to 98.3 BCF/day.  This compares to July’s monthly output of 98.5 BCF/day. The largest decline is expected to come from Haynesville.
Today’s forecast trends hottest along the West Coast and cooler in the NE and SW.  Hot conditions are expected across the Central and Southern US throughout much of next week which will likely lead to tighter balances.   This could result in prices testing the upper side of the recent range. 
 
Technical Analysis
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The spot September 23 natural gas contract held in a narrow .078 range during Monday’s session closing .025 higher at 2.795.

Early selling today has dropped the September contract under 2.750 support turning the 10 day average at 2.715 followed by the 40 day average at 2.665 into the next areas of support.

Last week’s rally up to lower-3.000 resistance closed an open gap from early-March.  Since this gap has been closed, prices have resumed a sideways to higher trend that has been in place since late-March.

The 2.863 overnight high is near term resistance followed by last week’s 3.018 high.  Longer term resistance is the 200 day moving average currently at 3.350.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 52.69

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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