By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed
After briefly trading above $10 Tuesday, spot month gas prices pulled back in afternoon trading following reports that Freeport LNG has pushed back its target for partial restart from early to mid October to early to mid November. They anticipate production to ramp up to a sustained level of at least 2 BCF/day by the end of November. Full operations were delayed even longer and are now not expected to resume until Mar 2023.
Milder weather last week resulted in lower gas fired cooling demand, leaving more gas available for storage. Platts projects this week’s storage report to show a build of 51 BCF for the week ended Aug 19. A build this size would be 5 BCF above the 5 yr avg of 46 BCF and would be well above last year’s build of 32 BCF.
US gas prices are back up this morning even as European prices begin to settle down. This morning’s support indicates yesterday’s selloff may have been overdone.
Moving forward, a longer period of below normal feedgas demand stemming from Freeport's delayed restart could help narrow the deficit.
The September 22 natural gas contract made two breakout attempts above the 10 level on Tuesday surpassing the 10 handle for the 1st time since 2008.
After reaching a 10.028 morning high, prices sold off sharply into the close with the September contract ending the day at 9.193, down .487 or 5%.
A bearish outside range day was posted on Tuesday but has not been confirmed with lower trade today.
Yesterday’s sell off bottomed on 10 day moving average support at 9.165 today keeping the trend at this point bullish.
Tuesday’s 10.028 high is near term resistance followed by monthly high resistance from December 2000 at 10.200.
A breakout under Tuesday’s 9.050 low will turn 8.450-8.500 into the next area of support with longer term 40 day moving average support at 7.740.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 60.44
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