

Prices continued to decline into the end of last week’s trade, driven by concern that mild weather would reduce demand while limiting the retraction of the storage surplus. Expectations for heightened tropical activity next month also present the possibility for additional downside risk to demand. The soon to be expired Sep contract settled 3.1 cents lower at $2.022.

After averaging just under 98 BCF/day during the latter part of last week, total demand has popped up to 104.3 BCF/day as of this morning. The increase is stemming from a 2.6 BCF/day boost in res/comm usage while power burn is up 0.7 BCF/day at 45.5 BCF/day. LNG feedgas demand is averaging 13 BCF/day.
Forecasters are calling for a very busy September in the tropics with 6-10 named storms expected next month. This could result in widespread power outages as well as a drop in LNG feedgas demand given the amount of LNG facilities located in the Gulf.
The recent rise in demand is being somewhat offset by production levels, which rose to a high of 102.4 BCF/day over the weekend. Platts estimates today’s output at 102 BCF/day. Month to date, production is averaging 102.1 BCF/day, down 1.3 BCF/day from Aug 2023.

Prices are starting the week lower as forecasts point to lower heat driven demand come September while the surplus remains at 12% higher than normal.
Forecasts for the next 2 weeks indicate significant variability with the eastern US initially seeing much warmer than normal temps while the West remains cooler. This pattern will then reverse with the West warming to above normal conditions as the East cools to more typical levels.

The September 24 natural gas contract closed down 4 out of 5 trading days last week settling Friday at 2.023, a 2-week low.
For the week, the September contract was down .100 closing lower on a weekly basis for an 8 time out of the past 10 weeks.
End of week selling came after a rally higher last Monday which failed to clear 2.301 weekly high resistance. With resistance holding, selling came back into the market.
2.000 support has been broken in overnight trade turning the 1.856 July low into the next area of support. The July low coincides with 78% retracement support of the 2024 downtrend at 1.850.
If 1.850 support is broken, the final 88% retracement at 1.680 will become the next downside objective.
2.000 is now resistance followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.135 today.
Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 39.12






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