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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 8-8-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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StoneX Market Indicator History
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Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices posted double digit gains to start the week following supportive weather outlooks.  The market is currently maintaining Monday’s gains despite overnight forecasts trending slightly cooler.  The 8-14 day outlook trending notably hotter Sunday night, particularly in the South but models did shift slightly cooler overnight. Sep nat gas settled Monday’s trade .148 cents higher at $2.725.

 

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Forecasts are still showing plenty of heat in the South and West through mid August, fueling strong gas fired power demand and continued tightening across the South Central region in particular. Power burns across the SE are trending just below last summer’s highs while gas fired power demand in TX has topped last summer’s record of 8.3 BCF/day, hitting 8.5 BCF/day last week. Power burn is expected to remain above 8 BCF/day over the next week. 

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LNG exports are still running well below capacity.  Platts estimates feedgas demand at 11.7 BCF today, down 0.4 BCF from Monday.  Projections for the next week show exports at 12.1 BCF/day.  Month to date, feedgas demand is averaging 12.2 BCF/day, up 1.4 BCF/day from last year. 

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Production levels are coming in lower this morning with Platts showing a 1.3 BCF/day decline to 101.1 BCF. 
Forecasts for this week's storage report call for a build of 19 BCF which would be well below both last year and the 5 yr avg builds of 44 BCF and 46 BCF, respectively. 
Technical Analysis
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The September 23 natural gas contract was up sharply on Monday to begin the new week of trade breaking out back over 40 day moving average and trend line resistance broken as support last week.

The combination of short-covering a new technical buying rallied the September contract higher by 1.48 or 5.7% on Monday closing the session at 2.725.  Volume was extremely high at 228,905 contracts.

Last week’s downside breakout appears to have failed renewing the previous trend of sideways to higher prices.

Monday’s rally topped out at a 2.754 high which is the same level to contract topped at two weeks ago.

A breakout above 2.754 will turn the last-June 2.911 high into the next area of resistance.

The lower-2.600 area is primary support which includes the 10 and 40 day moving averages as well as a 10-week trend line. 

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 55.29

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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