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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-19-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20250919072423-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

StoneX Commodity Indicator

image-20250919072449-2

Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices tumbled Thursday, shedding nearly 10 cents after storage data revealed a larger than expected injection.  The bearish miss reinforced the outlook for brimming end of season supplies, pushing the market lower following a mixed early morning trade.  With inventories now standing more than 200 BCF above the 5 yr average and roughly 7 weeks remaining in the injection season, the growing surplus continues to weigh on sentiment and prices.  Oct futures settled 16.1 cents lower at $2.939.

This morning’s outlook from Maxar trends cooler vs yesterday from the south central US to the Midwest and Interior East but warmer in the NW.  Readings will still register above normal across most regions with the lower Midwest and South seeing some variability.  The warmer than normal pattern is expected to continue into early October.  Above normal readings favor the Midcon while readings are closer to normal along the West Coast. 

image 119736

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Exceeding expectations by 10 BCF, storage levels rose 90 BCF during the week ended Sep 12. Gas in storage now stands at 3.433 TCF, 4 BCF below last year and 204 BCF above the 5 yr avg. Data implied a 3 BCF/day looser supply/demand balance with power generation lower on the week. The Midwest led the build with stocks there rising 30 BCF followed by a 29 BCF build in the South Central region and a 24 BCF build in the East.  

Looking ahead to the week in progress, another larger than normal injection s anticipated. Current estimates project a build of 78 BCF which compares to last year’s build of 49 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 76 BCF.  

image 119737

Source: NOAA

Total LNG feedgas demand was estimated yesterday at 16.2 BCF/day but is slightly lower this morning at 16 BCF/day.

The FERC has given Venture Global permission to start up one of the last remaining blocks of liquefaction trains at Plaquemines, leaving the facility closer to its target of bringing the plant fully online by year end. Feedgas deliveries at Plaquemines hover near record levels of about 3.3 BCF/day.  Corpus Christi continues to ramp up production as well, coming in yesterday at 2.2 BCF/day.  By December, feedgas from both facilities is expected to push overall feedgas demand past 19 BCF/day.  

image 119738

Source: Bloomberg

TS Gabrielle is expected to intensify over the weekend, reaching hurricane status with its staying east of Bermuda.

Prices are trading lower this morning as the market's focus turns back toward storage while output levels are higher on the day. 

Technical Analysis

image-20250919072619-3

Source: Bloomberg, CME

For a 2nd time in two weeks, a breakout attempt by the October 25 natural gas contract above 10 and 40 day moving average resistance has failed.

In yesterday’s early trade, the October contract was trading above the 10 and 40 day moving averages with bullish trend following indexes.   

But instead or rallying higher, the October contract sold off sharply losing .161 (5.2%) to close the day at 2.939.

With 10 and 40 day moving average support broken on Thursday, the momentum swings back to the downside with Wednesday’s 2.869 low being weekly support.

If broken, the contract low for the October contract at 2.738 will become the next support followed by 2.622, the 2025 spot contract low set in late-August.  

If 2.622 support is reached and broken, it would be an incredibly bearish technical signal as the market heads into October when a post-summer seasonal low is historically set.

The 40 day moving average is now near term resistance at 2.960 followed by the 10 day average at 3.020.  Weekly high resistance is at 3.168.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 44.36

image 119742

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119741

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119740

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119448

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 118877

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 119739

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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