By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (06), the most active Brent contract closed up 0.7%, quoted at USD 109.8/bbl. WTI futures followed the same path, ending the day at USD 112.4/bbl, up 0.3%.
Oil futures rose again after Tehran denied new talks with Washington, increasing fears of a new escalation of the war amid threats by Donald Trump of further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
This morning (07), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading up 1.2%, quoted at USD 111.2/bbl as of 09:15. Reports of new airstrikes against Kharg Island in Iran are supporting oil prices, as the market prices in supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf country.
After rumors regarding the consideration of a peace proposal sent by intermediaries, Iranian sources denied the possibility of fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz unless the U.S. and Israel accept the terms defined by Tehran to end the war.
Why it matters: The lack of dialogue to consolidate a ceasefire heightens fears of a new escalation of the war, with investors pricing in the possibility of U.S. ground operations and attacks on Iran’s strategic energy assets — which helps keep prices at elevated levels.
Overview: In recent days, the market has been observing Iran’s adoption of a new policy for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, applying “tolls” to vessels intending to cross the route that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
What to expect: Investors are now waiting to see U.S. military movements, as the deadline set by Trump for reopening the Strait of Hormuz approaches.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.
The oil market keeps watching the Strait of Hormuz, but the tighter pressure on fuel is building in refining. With a large share of global capacity offline and unplanned outages carrying no repair timeline, diesel supply faces three fresh risks before winter.
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