By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (07), the most active Brent contract closed down 0.5%, quoted at USD 109.3/bbl. WTI futures moved in the opposite direction, ending the day at USD 112.9/bbl, up 0.5%.
Mixed statements made by Trump throughout the previous session and rising uncertainty regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East led to broad volatility in oil prices, with the main benchmarks moving in opposite directions.
This morning (08), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading down 14.7%, quoted at USD 93.3/bbl as of 08:30. The sharp drop in prices reflects the temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran last night, with investors expecting a resumption of oil and refined product flows through the Persian Gulf.
After a series of mixed statements throughout the previous session, the U.S. and Iranian governments confirmed late last night (07) a ceasefire agreement with a two‑week duration. The decision is directly conditional on the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why this matters: The first ceasefire between Washington and Tehran since the start of the war brought down the risk premiums associated with oil supply in the Persian Gulf, with investors pricing in a gradual resumption of crude exports from the region in the very short term.
What to expect: In the very short term, market attention should focus entirely on vessel traffic in the region, which should help keep prices below levels seen in recent days.
According to data released by the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), Brazilian diesel imports in March fell 25% compared to February, totaling 1.05 million m³. The sharp reduction in shipments to Brazil reflects both heightened competition for the product in the international market and the increase in imported diesel prices arriving at Brazilian ports.
The reduction in volumes occurred mainly in shipments originating from the U.S., whose share dropped to less than 1%, compared to 8.3% recorded in the previous month. The decline in the U.S. share likely reflects a redirection of U.S. diesel exports to other regions paying higher premiums, particularly Asia – the region most affected by the suspension of refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid this context of reduced supply from the U.S., Russia increased its share from 58% to 75%, with the country maintaining export volumes similar to those observed in February. Despite Ukrainian attacks on key western Russian ports in mid‑March and a temporary reduction in fuel exports, the impacts of this lower supply are expected to be felt in shipments scheduled for April.
Another noteworthy point was the maintenance of Saudi Arabia’s and the United Arab Emirates’ participation, each accounting for around 130 thousand m³ shipped to Brazil. This scenario reflects either stronger impacts from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on cargoes scheduled for April or the ability to ship these products via the Red Sea.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.
The oil market keeps watching the Strait of Hormuz, but the tighter pressure on fuel is building in refining. With a large share of global capacity offline and unplanned outages carrying no repair timeline, diesel supply faces three fresh risks before winter.
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