StoneX logo

Daily Petroleum

By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst

Banner Currencies

Oil pulls back amid increased optimism over diplomatic negotiations

Yesterday (16), the most active Brent contract closed higher, totaling USD 99.39/bbl (+4.70%). WTI futures followed a similar path, ending the day at USD 94.69/bbl (+3.70%).

Even after confirmation of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon by the U.S., investors once again began pricing in physical market conditions more heavily, with supply disruptions of some refined products – especially jet fuel – in Europe and Asia helping to support prices across several energy commodities.

This morning (17), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading down 3.11%, quoted at USD 96.30/bbl as of 09:42 GMT. The market is reacting once again to the ten-day truce between Israel and Lebanon and the prospect of new talks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, with expectations that renewed negotiations could open room for some geopolitical de-escalation.

U.S.–Iran talks end the week at a standstill, with Hormuz still blocked

The market ends the week oscillating between signs of diplomatic progress and the operational reality of a blockade that has lasted nearly 50 days. Trump stated that Tehran had agreed to conditions that include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although the Iranian regime has not commented on the matter.

Why this matters: The effects of a prolonged blockade are becoming increasingly visible, with reports of oil and refined product shortages across Asia, Europe, and Africa.

  • As the last energy cargoes from the Persian Gulf reached Asian and European markets in early April, the effects of the suspension of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are already becoming more evident in these regions.
  • According to the IEA, Europe has “around six weeks of jet fuel inventories,” reflecting elevated risks regarding fuel availability on the continent in the very short term.
  • It is worth noting that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, announced after the collapse of talks over the previous weekend, adds an additional layer of restriction to exports, even though some sanctioned vessels have managed to cross.
  • In addition, the IEA also confirmed that it may take up to two years for a significant portion of Middle Eastern oil and gas production disrupted by the conflict to be restored, highlighting the long-term effects of the U.S.–Iran conflict.

What to expect: The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon adds downward pressure to financial markets, given expectations that this move could encourage a definitive peace resolution between Tehran and Washington later this weekend.

  • At the same time, the disconnect between exchange-traded prices and the physical market remains evident, as the global balance situation begins to deteriorate at a faster pace.
  • In this sense, next Monday’s session (20) should reflect the diplomatic outcomes of the next two days, with investor attention remaining focused on talks mediated by Pakistan.
  • Energy

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Energy

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Permian Gas Has Become the Awkward Byproduct of America's Oil Boom

America's oil boom has an awkward side effect in the Permian Basin, where the natural gas that surfaces alongside crude has become something producers struggle to get rid of. With takeaway capacity stretched, Permian gas prices have fallen below zero, leaving drillers paying others to haul the gas away.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Energy
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.