Yesterday (June 25, 2026), the most active Brent contract closed up 2.1% at USD 75.26/bbl. WTI followed, settling at USD 71.92/bbl (+2.3%). The session reversed the previous day's downward trend, when both contracts had hit their lowest levels since February 27.
The move was driven by an attack on a cargo ship near Oman, with staff confirming that Iran fired upon the vessel as it attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz outside Tehran-designated routes. The episode suspended the IMO's voluntary evacuation program and reignited the risk premium, even as the volume of shipments through the strait reached its highest level since the onset of the conflict in February.
This morning (June 26, 2026), Brent trades down 3.4% at USD 72.7/bbl around 08:40 AM. The announcement of resumed loadings at Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, as well as expectations of increased barrel deliveries by other Gulf countries, intensifies the week’s decline, as the market prices in a faster recovery of oil exports from the region in the short term.
Resumption of Saudi exports and surge in Middle Eastern offers
Saudi Aramco resumed loadings at the Ras Tanura terminal this Friday, with two VLCC vessels, each with a capacity of 2 million barrels, already loading and a third awaiting nearby. This marks the first shipment from the port since March 8, when Aramco rerouted its exports to Yanbu on the Red Sea following Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The resumption coincides with a wave of regional tenders: QatarEnergy offered Al-Shaheen, Marine Qatar, and Marine Land grades for July–August loading; Iraq launched a tender for Basra Heavy and Basra Medium; and Kuwait Petroleum Corp. sold 2 million barrels of Kuwait Export Blend to India.
Why it matters: The reactivation of Ras Tanura signals that the world's largest exporter is betting on the durability of the maritime corridor, exerting downward pressure on prices by expanding the short-term surplus. The convergence of simultaneous offers from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE compresses Middle Eastern oil differentials, with benchmarks such as Oman, Dubai, and Murban hitting five-year lows this week. The second-order effect is a likely bearish revision to Saudi official selling prices (OSPs) for August, deepening pressure on competing blends, including African and Atlantic origins.
Background: Saudi exports fell from more than 7 mbpd in February to around 4 mbpd over the past three months; Ras Tanura alone previously exported over 5 mbpd before the conflict. ADNOC sold at least 48 million barrels via three tenders in June; Formosa of Taiwan has already acquired 2 million barrels of Al-Shaheen this week.
What to expect? As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains operational—even if only partially—supply pressure is expected to keep Brent prices capped in the short term. Should new vessel incidents result in closure of Tehran-approved routes, the abrupt withdrawal of volumes already committed in open tenders could trigger pronounced volatility; in this scenario, Gulf differentials would likely recover rapidly.
Flows through the Strait of Hormuz at highest since February, but traffic still below historical standard
The volume of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached the highest level since the conflict began on February 28, with estimates from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicating roughly 20 million barrels in the last 24 hours — equivalent to about one-fifth of global consumption. On Thursday, four tankers carried 6 million barrels of oil, plus 4 million barrels in two vessels with Iranian crude. Still, total traffic remains a fraction of the pre-war average of 125 vessels per day, and ships avoid the central zone of the strait owing to mine risk, concentrating on the Omani side.
Why it matters: The persistence of exclusion zones and the Revolutionary Guard's actions against ships outside designated routes sustain the fragility of the global balance, even with increased flows. With Gulf storage tanks operating between 50% and 60% of capacity, any new interruption would force a reduction in regional production before global inventories could absorb the shock.
What to expect? The current scenario is one of gradual and asymmetric recovery in flows, conditioned by adherence to Tehran-defined routes. Brent and WTI are down about 7% for the week, reflecting relief from partial reopening; if the IMO resumes the evacuation scheme and daily traffic consistently exceeds 80 vessels, a further round of downward repricing is possible. Should Iran extend restrictions on ships outside approved routes, the risk premium may quickly reconstitute.
