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Daily Petroleum Report

By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst

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Oil Prices Surge Above USD 110/bbl Again

Yesterday (27), the most actively traded Brent contract closed higher at USD 108.23/bbl (+2.80%). WTI futures followed a similar trend, ending the day at USD 96.37/bbl (+2.10%).

The upward movement continued to reflect challenges in peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with the U.S. special envoy canceling his trip to Islamabad and Tehran’s proposal being met with skepticism by senior Trump administration officials.

This morning (28), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading up by 3.03%, priced at USD 111.51/bbl as of 9:00 AM Brasília time. The session's main driver is confirmation that President Trump remains dissatisfied with Tehran’s latest proposal, effectively eliminating any short-term prospects for progress in negotiations.

U.S. Expresses Discontent Over Iran’s Peace Proposal

Following the submission of Tehran’s peace negotiation proposal yesterday (27), White House sources confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the document sent by Iran, which suggests discussing the country’s nuclear program only after the end of the conflict.

Why This Matters: The lack of progress in talks between Washington and Tehran toward a definitive peace resolution heightens concerns over the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime tracking data indicates that only seven vessels transited the strait on Monday.

  • The impacts of restricted oil supply from the Persian Gulf are becoming increasingly evident, with data from India’s Ministry of Petroleum showing that the Asian country imported the lowest volume of oil in eight months during March, marking a 5.6% decline compared to February.
  • Despite exemptions on sanctioned Russian oil imposed by the White House, India has continued to face challenges in sourcing the same volume of crude oil as in the pre-war period, given Saudi Arabia’s key role as a supplier of crude to New Delhi.
  • It’s worth noting that this situation is likely to further affect the balance of Asian countries in April, as the last shipments of oil from the Persian Gulf arrived between late March and early April.

Market Snapshot: Vessel tracking data indicates that only seven ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday – none of them carrying crude oil destined for international markets. Meanwhile, six tankers loaded with Iranian oil were forced to return to Iran due to the U.S. blockade.

  • Iran has conditioned any negotiations on the prior lifting of the U.S. blockade on its ports, while Washington continues to use the blockade as leverage. This asymmetry in preconditions makes the resumption of face-to-face dialogue unlikely in the near term.

Outlook: In the coming sessions, the market is expected to continue pricing in geopolitical risk premiums as long as no concrete signs of resumed negotiations emerge.

  • It’s important to note that at this time, futures prices are converging closer to physical market prices, as investors begin to factor in the significant supply deficit caused by the suspension of most oil exports from the Persian Gulf over the past two months.
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