By: Matt Weller, Head of Market Research
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the markets since 1990.
As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Historically, December has been a strong month for US stocks, with the broad S&P 500 index sporting an average (price-only) return of +1.3% over the last 35 years. After a mid-month swoon, November finished essentially flat, keeping the post-Liberation Day uptrend intact heading into December. With little on the earnings front this month, the focus will be on (delayed) macroeconomic data and the FOMC meeting on December 10, where a 25bps interest rate cut is widely expected. One other factor to monitor is the potential for a “Santa Claus Rally,” a topic I recently discussed on the Trading Global Macro podcast with John Kicklighter.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major markets and the global economy.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Global economies are increasingly facing a shift where inflation proves more persistent even as growth begins to slow. Repeated supply shocks are no longer temporary disruptions but are starting to reshape expectations and policy responses.
Market pullbacks happen frequently, yet they continue to unsettle investors more than they should. Historical data shows these declines are a normal part of equity cycles rather than a sign of deeper market stress.
Rising oil prices are beginning to weigh on hiring as U.S. labor demand shows early signs of cooling. This shift is creating new risks for economic growth as cost pressures build.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
