Ceasefire Talks Add Pressure to Oil Prices
Yesterday (24), Brent’s most active contract closed with a 4.5% increase, priced at USD 104.5/bbl. WTI futures followed a similar trend, ending the day at USD 92.3/bbl, up 4.8%.
Throughout the previous session, sustained Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and confirmation from the Wall Street Journal regarding the deployment of 3,000 U.S. troops to the Middle East reignited concerns about a potential escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, providing strong support for oil futures.
This morning (25), Brent’s May 2026 contract is trading down by 5.9%, priced at USD 94.3/bbl as of 9:00 AM. Renewed talks between Washington and Tehran over a potential ceasefire are putting downward pressure on oil futures, as the market factors in the possibility of resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. Proposes 15-Day Ceasefire Plan with Iran
Last night, U.S. President Donald Trump commented on progress in negotiations with the Iranian regime, adopting an optimistic tone regarding diplomatic talks. Simultaneously, sources in Washington confirmed a 15-day plan proposed by the White House to formalize a ceasefire agreement.
Why This Matters: Expectations surrounding a resolution to the conflict are weighing on oil prices, as the end of the war is expected to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing the global commodity balance, which remains significantly tight with approximately 12 million barrels per day—or 12% of global supply—stalled in the Persian Gulf.
Outlook: Yesterday afternoon, Israel’s Channel 12 confirmed that the U.S. was considering formalizing a one-month ceasefire proposal with Iran, further fueling hopes for diplomatic rapprochement between Washington and Tehran.
- According to Iranian officials, Pakistan has been mediating talks between the two nations, delivering the White House’s ceasefire plan to the Iranian government earlier this morning.
- While Tehran denies direct diplomatic negotiations with the U.S., internal sources have confirmed that the regime is considering engaging in this dialogue mediated by Pakistan and Turkey.
- Israel, however, has expressed concerns over the progress of these discussions, citing uncertainties about the concessions to be made by both sides.
What to Expect: Investors are now awaiting official communication regarding negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Should these confirmations fail to materialize, the market may revert to a bullish stance on oil prices, pricing in the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- It’s worth noting that today marks the 24th day of flow suspension through the strait, with impacts increasingly evident in Asia. The suspension of Chinese fuel exports following the onset of the conflict has pressured other Asian consumers to seek alternative suppliers, pushing U.S. oil and derivative export terminals to operate near maximum capacity.
- If the blockade persists in the coming days, bearish pressures may reverse. Conversely, an agreement between the U.S. and Iran could drive oil prices into a sharp downward trajectory, reflecting the resumption of exports from the Persian Gulf.
Russia Halts Part of Oil Exports
According to Russian sources, the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk have partially suspended oil shipments between yesterday and today, as Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted operations at key export terminals that serve Western markets.
Why This Matters: The reduction in Russian oil flows amid significant supply constraints in the Persian Gulf further strains commodity balances in certain regions, leaving fewer suppliers available to meet global demand.
- The port of Primorsk has an export capacity of approximately 1 mbpd, making it a strategic hub for sending energy products abroad.
- Meanwhile, estimates suggest that Ust-Luga exported around 660 kbpd of derivatives in 2025, while Primorsk handled roughly 336 kbpd of derivatives last year.
What to Expect: The market is now awaiting updates from Moscow on the timeline for restoring full export capacity at these ports. Amid heightened uncertainty over oil supply from the Middle East, prolonged restrictions at these ports could provide additional support to crude oil prices.
- It’s important to note that, in addition to U.S. permissions allowing India to resume purchases of Russian oil, the European Commission is considering suspending its decision to halt Russian energy imports on April 15—giving Russia a lifeline to continue exporting sanctioned oil to other regions amidst tight commodity supply conditions in the Middle East.
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