
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

The 90-day pause. That was the story yesterday. For the third time this year, the President Trump has paused a trade regime change in some way, shape and form. The most recent pause includes more than 75 trading partners because they did not retaliate and have reached out to the United States to “discuss” some of the issues he had raised. The pause didn’t apply to China, which has retaliated with 84% hikes. President Trump instead raised duties for it to 125%, effective immediately.
We’re not out of the woods yet – a 10% tariff is still in place – but the semblance of a move towards the making of trade “deals” sent markets skyward midday. The bellwether S&P500 gained over 8% in minutes. Crude oil went from $4.00 lower on the day to $2.00 higher. Grains caught a bid as did dairy markets.
Spot cheese has been on the mend since before Liberation Day (naysayers fight me in the comments). Sure, that didn’t help futures, which printed their recent lows on April 4. But the spot markets was rather stable in the low $1.60s the entire time; we have to go back to March 21 to find the low price of $1.6050. Since then the market has absorbed all the fresh cheese available – 109 loads – and moved higher.
As far as “bear bounces” go, so far this one is pitiful. The break-neck speed and relentlessness of typical bear bounces is not really how we’d describe yesterday’s rally. Bearish sentiment is very ingrained in the market now. Perhaps rightly so. In fact we had to look outside dairy – to yesterday’s 90 day pause – to find the linchpin to releasing at least some of the market negativity resulting in a somewhat orderly rally.
Nearby Class III rallied 40-50 cents intraday and open interest increased in May – the most actively traded month. Overall trading volumes were moderate (1,773 Class III; 557 Cheese) and open interest increased for both. The overall technical trend remains bearish for nearby contracts. While we expect a mixed to lower start to today, however, be on guard for more price strength near-term as the market appears to be unwinding the aggressively bearish stance largely created last month.
NFDM also turned higher yesterday. Lack of demand has led to weaker pricing even as inventories overall remain rather low. We could chalk up some of the strength yesterday to the releasing of some trade tensions midday, but spot NFDM also closed 0.50 higher on 5 trades. It’s important to note that while NFDM has been mostly weaker over the last month, EU prices have remained relatively steady with a stronger euro. That has made US SMP slightly more competitive in SE Asia and there was chatter of product moving before tariffs started. Most SE Asian countries never responded with reciprocal tariffs so there still could be product moving throughout this last week.
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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