CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - April 2, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Class III and Cheese futures continued to decline Monday as the virus strain infecting some dairy animals in Texas was reportedly identified in the first human. The news worried dairy markets, but it was the US cattle markets that took the shellacking. Both Live and Feeder Cattle market fell around 3% to kick off April, while Class III and Cheese fell less that 0.5%. Overnight Class III and Cheese are trading lower as risks to consumer demand for dairy are prevalent in conversations. We don’t want to minimize those concerns or turn a blind eye to the risks here, but if history rhymes with this modern day situation dairy may come away more unscathed than would seem possible this morning.
On Christmas Eve 2003 the US got its first ever reported case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) or ‘Mad Cow’ in short. Selling on the Class III market that morning was aggressive. Live Cattle went limit down for several days in a row (NOTE: back then Live Cattle daily limits were 1.50 not the 6.75 dollars today). We went into Christmas with the fear of God in us about demand destruction. But then something strange happened as we rolled into 2004 – Cheese and Class III went up… and how.
The moral of the story is that we don’t really know what the impact of this particular illness will be. There are big risks on the table this morning no doubt, but suggesting we know exactly how this will play out is a fool’s errand. The current structure of Class III and Cheese remains in a bearish “carry” and demand remains subdued. But as the chatter around this story leans bearish, we’d suggest that, at some level, when the US consumer hears “cattle” they think beef – not dairy.
The producers we’ve talked with who are close to the matter are taking this very seriously. Such an event ushers in conversation wherein we see the tremendous effort each and every US producer puts into the care of their dairy and their animals. We wish them the best and we’ll keep you updated on what we hear.
Despite the bearishness of Class III and Cheese today, Butter is on another planet. Butter futures spurred to new highs (in the second half) yesterday as buyers continue to want to own futures contracts. Over 220 contracts changed hands and open interest rose by 117 contracts as buying got started early in the second half yesterday. Spot butter pushed 0.75 cent higher to close at $2.8500 – the 7th week of the mid-$2.80s holding the high price print. July to December closed at $294.600 with $3.00 butter now in the clear line of sight for butter futures – we’re still looking for a fundamental reason for spot to make that move. We don’t see it this morning.
NFDM futures consolidated on light volume Monday in anticipation of the GDT auction event this morning (US). SGX futures are pointing towards a change in the GDT price index, expecting it to rise slightly (+0.3%) compared to the decline we have seen in the last few events. Prices at the previous GDT Event fell in-line with where futures were projecting prices would be.
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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