
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Selling pressure started early for Class III and Cheese Wednesday as chatter turned to media coverage on HPAI detection in pasteurized milk. In our view, Class III and Cheese would have likely been lower yesterday without that news as the market appears to be in a 2-3 day corrective action following Monday’s full re-test of contract highs. To add to the pressure, spot Block cheese, which hasn’t traded since making new 2024 highs on Monday, fell 2 cents yesterday. Barrels have been flat at Monday’s high price print all week. All of this is to say that the structure of cheese market is changing now and market dynamics may be broadly supportive going forward. Cold storage continues to show cheese makers are limiting cheese production to match the weak demand we've seen this year. If the recent (anecdotal) uptick in US demand holds, $1.70-$1.80 should be sustainable.
In the meantime, Class III and Cheese futures have to find a foothold amid the weakness. That’s the goal today. Or by the end of this week. Find that place where the market can consolidate and trade sideways. The issue in these red hot markets like Class III/Cheese (the past week) is that we can overshoot the mark and snap back. All of this is to say, expect more volatility. Trading volumes are very good with over 2,400 Class III – with over 3,300 options - and 904 Cheese futures changing hands (336 options). Producer selling was apparent early this week, but has slowed. Floor protection on nearby contracts remain of interest.
The March Cold Storage report was released yesterday. Stocks came in close to forecast with cheese down 0.1% and butter up 2.3%. These inventory levels are still pointing toward $1.70-$1.80 cheese and $2.40-$2.50 type butter, but that has been the case all year and the market has been trading well below and above those levels.

Butter futures yesterday continued to take back Monday’s gains as the spot market stayed steady trading down ¼ of a cent. Futures volume remained strong with 267 contracts trading and buying interest in deferred contracts is still prevalent as open interest rose by 74 contracts.
Weaker global prices in powders and bleak demand out of Mexico continues to put pressure on nonfat prices as spot made a new 2024 low yesterday trading 1.5 cents lower on 3 trades. Futures made new contract lows again yesterday as futures volume nearly double from Tuesday. 531 contracts traded but with open interest only rising by 42 contracts meaning there was a good mix of new buying and selling happening. Option liquidity in nonfat has also been very strong this last week with over 300 options trading in each day beside Monday.
New Zealand milk equivalent exports in March came in stronger than expected and up 10.1% from last year. However, they revised down February from +37.9% to +29.8%. So combined February+March exports, after taking into account the revisions, were just slightly better than expected. In absolute terms, the volume is pretty good and is keeping estimated stocks well below year ago levels. Shipments to China were up 0.5% from last year in March, which is a big slowdown from the +40% that we saw in February and +20.4% in January and it suggests China’s official April imports are going to be down again.

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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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