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Early Morning Update - April 5, 2024

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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Spot cheese continued to clear product in the mid-$1.40’s Thursday with 13 blocks and 5 barrels trading leaving prices unchanged on the day. We’ve been a nickel or so either side of yesterday’s spot settlement now going on 3 weeks. Despite the general bearish tone to domestic cheese demand overall (especially considering strong export numbers from February below), spot is stable at current levels and futures caught a bid yesterday.

We’ve mentioned the past few notes that futures market sell side pressure (nearby) appeared to be slowing some this week. After the recent rout, oversold futures conditions developed - regardless of the futures premium to spot. We suggested the potential for short-covering was imminent in yesterday’s report, so you can image we were surprised to see open interest increase in nearby contracts yesterday. We suspect some of this is rolling out of April into May and there is likely some short-covering in the mix, but there is also evidence of new buy side interest thru Q2. Dry Whey futures, which turned modestly higher yesterday also likely lent a supportive hand.

Concerns over loss of demand from avian flu in cattle are subsiding and it is possible that concerns are drifting back to the supply side of the equation. We know sick animals lose production for a period of a few weeks (and some don’t bounce back), but there are reports that entire herds are dropping in rumination when a good chunk of them go into the hospital pen. Perhaps out of sympathy? More importantly, perhaps, was yesterday’s release of February’s US export sales data.

US exports were much stronger than expected in February, up 8.8% compared to the forecast of +1.9%. Cheese exports were fantastic. In fact, cheese exports to countries other than Mexico were up 17.4% YoY in February. That said, Australia hasn't stepped up to take cheap U.S. cheese, which is notable. NFDMP/SMP exports were also stronger than expected.

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Spot butter fell a penny on 5 trades yesterday stunting the runaway upside momentum seen this week in the butter futures markets. April and May both closed lower but the balance of the forward curve finished higher on the day. A moderate two-sided trade continued with 167 contracts changing hands and open interest modestly higher. The futures market is in rarefied air right now and it will need a fresh dose of something bullish to keep this pace. The bust of buyer energy earlier this week is showing signs of slowing.

NFDM futures were higher yesterday as this choppy back and forth trading development continues. Similar trading volumes to Wednesday with 153 contracts trading yesterday and open interest increasing. Spot NFDM gained a half-penny to close at $114.500 on 2 trades. With both NFDM and Butter trading higher, Class IV got busy pushing modestly higher as well on heavy volume. For the most part all months saw some increase in price, but of the 470 Class IV contracts traded yesterday – 437 of them transacted in the January to June 2025 contract months. We also saw a good deal of Jan-June Class III trade yesterday (60 per month). The Jan-Jun 2025 Class III/IV spread sits at $1.49/cwt IV over III today.

  • Dairy

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