
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Class III and Cheese futures paused Tuesday despite another round of spot market bidding. Block cheese closed up 2.00 cents at $2.0200 on 6 trades establishing another new 2024 high price print. And this time the price of barrel cheese also made a new 2024 high closing up 7.00 cents at $2.1600 on 3 late session trades. The most pervasive question we received following this action yesterday: why aren’t futures much higher?
Nearby Class III and Cheese futures rallied ahead of this spot market move but at some point – and that point appears to have been yesterday – spot and futures pricing *try* to converge. We could leave it at that, but digging a little deeper we’d suggest such a strong rally so far this week (particularly for barrel cheese) is somewhat destabilizing. Barrel cheese has gained 15.5 cents on just 3 trades. And while this coincides with anecdotal comments that “barrels are quite tight” right now, it opens the possibility to bigger price swings for that market.
While both spot markets are breaking out of a 3-month sideways trading range and moving higher, which is bullish price action overall - there is another question market participants were asking yesterday: What happens if spot buyers go away for a day? For the anglers reading, we’ll call this ‘letting the waters settle’.
Futures markets yesterday – although relatively active with good two-sided trading – were more or less behaving as though the spot market has to prove this quick move. The spike in spot prices freed up some fresh block and barrel cheese yesterday. Fundamentally there is not an apparent heavy supply of fresh Grade A cheese that can come to the CME, but the futures market appears to be concerned about spot sellers testing the mettle of buyers now.
Spot butter continues to trade $3.10 give or take a nickel. Several times we thought buyers might take out the 2024 high price print of $3.1625 established back in the first week of June. Not the case. Good two-sided trading continues for spot and that resulted in 11 trades dropping the price 2.00 cents to $3.1200 yesterday. This sent a surge of new selling interest into futures, which was met by a seemingly infinite desire to buy futures. 309 butter futures trades Tuesday as prices finished mixed/mostly lower and open interest increased by 94 contracts. We expect more butter to be on offer during the spot call.
If the price of butter looks a little rich, the price of NFDM looks a little cheap from a protein perspective. Dry Whey, Cheese have both seen stronger price action over the past month, while NFDM continues to chop around current levels. Is this a well supplied market against lackluster demand or a powder keg ready to blow? We’ll let price action answer that question and so far it seems the market is more than contented to chop around current levels. Futures were firm yesterday on light volume, which is to say there is little conviction behind that strength. The trade is waiting to on more details around this week’s ONIL tender for perhaps another chapter to the global demand story.
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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