CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - December 3, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Dairy markets were mixed Monday following the long Thanksgiving holiday break. Class III and Cheese traded both sides of steady and finished that way on solid trading volume. Over 2,800 Class III and nearly 1,000 Cheese futures changed hands as open interest increased for both (+205, +368, respectively). Spot cheese was offered yesterday with no bids and no trades and an early close re-establishing the pre-holiday narrative of plenty of cheese and weaker demand. And with a near 3 cent block/barrel spread there is some desire to say the market has reached a nice level of equilibrium for the moment around the $1.60 level, which is more or less resulting in a narrow trading range for futures recently.
Much of the Class III volume yesterday came from the Dec24/Jan25 spread trade, which has been quite active over the past week. In fact, 2,239 of the 2,846 Class III contracts traded Monday did so in December and January alone. Much of this trade is a roll of positions out of December and into January. What’s interesting about the spread lately, however, is that December 2024 is trading around 30 cents above January. We could explain this by saying that the market believes cheese demand will be even slower in January. While that is historically a seasonally safe presumption, there is risk in that thinking. As investor Howard Marks said, “The riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there’s no risk. By the same token, the safest (and most rewarding) time to buy usually comes when everyone is convinced there’s no hope.” Mr. Marks is in the markets (and not, to our knowledge, dairy) to make a profit – not hedge off physical dairy product risks – but the quote helps highlight the often unforeseen cyclical nature of markets.
Butter futures were firm yesterday on heavier volume and rising open interest. 482 butter contracts changed hands and open interest increased by 108. Likely there was some bit of short-covering along with what appeared to be more aggressive spot bidding interest to kick off this first week of December. Spot butter traded 9 times Monday with 4 bids and 5 offers left on the board. The market seems comfortable in the $2.45-$2.55 range presently, but with today’s GDT auction looming yesterday it would appear that traders didn’t waste anytime positioning ahead of time.
Speaking of the GDT auction, we’re looking for a 1.9% increase to the index overall. SGX futures are pointing toward higher prices at the upcoming GDT Event compared to the prior Event. The recent pulse auction showed increased WMP and SMP prices so there is a good chance that we will see prices continue to climb.
North Asia increased their market share of WMP and overall purchases during the last event compared to the previous year and previous event. With North Asia demand stepping back in there is an opportunity for continued support in prices.
NFDM futures were also mostly higher yesterday though on lighter volume and rather insignificant open interest increases (volume: 189, OI: +29). Spot remained steady at $1.3950 with no trades. This market remains in a sideways consolidation around the recent highs as market bears focus on our price level relative to the rest of the world and spotty demand. Market bulls are more willing to focus on lower inventories and Bird Flu in California, which is still causing severe problems for CA producers. In fact, there is some speculation that overall milk production numbers in California will be worse in November than was the case in October.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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