CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - February 18, 2025
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
We kick off this shortened holiday week with a GDT Auction underway this morning (US). We’re expecting a 0.4% decline in the GDT Index. SGX futures leaned toward a decrease in value for today’s auction. The recent GDT pulse auction experienced a significant decline (-5.3%) in SMP prices while WMP prices stayed flat. Futures are projecting similar sentiment with WMP prices expected to increase while SMP and fat products are expected to fall. We shall see.
Perhaps in sympathy with global prices (for the first time in what seems like months) or of its own accord, US NFDM prices continued to decline last week culminating in an aggressive sell-off Friday. Spot NFDM fell 2 cents to $128.000 – the first time the market has traded sub-$130.000 since the last week of August 2024. New price lows for this move came on strong volume and rising open interest (575 futures traded Friday and OI gained 302 contracts). Futures prices are now in a full-retest of contract lows established back in July of 2024 (this may be supportive short-term). NFDM options trading also spiked with 920 options changing hands (the second best option volume last week with 935 options on Tuesday).
Butter futures also sold off as spot gave up it’s intra-weak gains closing at a new low for the move (from $3.19) at $237.750. The trade slammed the premium in the forward curve on heavy volume and rising open interest (516 futures contracts and OI up 193). Churns are running full with widely available ( and in some cases extremely cheap cream) and this is reflected to some degree in continual loads on offer during the spot call. As much as we talk about exports and global growth, the focus on producing 80% fat butter remains alive and well despite an apparent window of opportunity to produce 82% for export. In the midst of the bearish fundamental news, futures are “oversold” now.
As market weakness presses on for Class IV and products, the Class III market remains remarkably stable. No doubt this market has had its fair share of really bearish trading days followed by breakneck rallies over the past month, but those swings more or less died down last week. As did trading volume. Class III Milk futures have consistently traded more than 1,000 contracts per day over the past few months (give or take a day here or there). Last week, the bellwether couldn’t eclipse 1,000 contracts of futures trade volume on any day.
We’ve said market direction was sideways caught between perception and reality. The perception is that there is plenty of available cheddar just over those hills there (between new plant capacity and potential tariff issues forthcoming). The reality is that fresh cheddar availability today – especially block cheddar – is relatively tight.
The Weekly Block Cheese chart below shows the back-and-forth gyrations of a market largely in balance around $1.90 so far this year. Price dips for block cheese don’t last long, but there is also little buyer panic to create that “wall of worry” typical with a bull market run. This is a new week, so anything is possible – but our estimation is that if we don’t continue to clear product around the $1.90 level, the risk is the next move for spot blocks is higher.
Both Class III and Cheese are poised to open weaker today following a mostly weaker close Friday. But these markets are still very much range-bound. When that changes (for higher or lower), we’ll alert you to that. In the meantime, continued choppy is the call for Class III and Cheese.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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