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Early Morning Update - July 11, 2024

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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The path for Class III and Cheese futures was higher again on Wednesday as stable spot prices and record heat appear to be underpinning features this week. Dry Whey futures have also been supportive of 2024 Class III contracts. Although futures are slowly inching higher this week – and again overnight – only Q4 contracts have made new contract highs this week (Nearby contracts are still below their June highs).

The big issue today is demand for cheese here in the $1.90s. We’re seeing a good two-sided spot trade develop so far this week, which means the market clearing price for now is right around where we settled yesterday. We expect this kind of back and forth on spot to continue this week around current levels, which may stunt the recent futures price strength short term. There is a modest risk that futures price strength emboldens the spot bids leading to more spot market strength – but for now we think the cash price appears to be etching out some sort of livable price level for now.

The ho-hum spot butter market of late gave way to more pronounced selling pressure yesterday. The spot market fell 3.5 cents on 9 trades. And while there were 7 unfilled bids left on the board, the sellers were the aggressors. Futures were more subdued with just 84 contracts changing hands (versus 284 contracts on Tuesday). We continue to hear of bulk butter availability in the country and eventually we think more downside spot market risks exist. But so far the market is a very stable one that has yet to pick a more meaningful direction. We look for butter to trade mixed around current levels this morning while continuing to look for signals of a breakout either direction.

In the big picture NFDM is also quite stable. Futures prices were mostly weak as nearby prices “work off” some of the July 4th premium the market added around the holiday. The weaker GDT Pulse on Tuesday likely assisted with the modest futures price declines – especially out into 2025 where Q1 prices are now rubbing up against contract lows. Spot was steady at $118.000 yesterday with good two-sided interest. Directionally the market continues to chop sideways here waiting on some bit of fresh news or some bit of fresh market participant panic one way or the other. That doesn’t exist today. But in the quiet of the day, we’d just remind you of an old trading adage: don’t sell a sleeping market. To be fair, we’re not sure NFDM is really sleeping today, but we’ll say it's definitely kicked back in the Barcalounger.

  • Dairy

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