
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Class III and Cheese bulls charged the market this week culminating in yesterday’s aggressive push to new contract highs for most 2024 contracts. In fact, the August Class III contract eclipsed the August Class IV contract closing 18 cents higher on the day symbolically gesturing at a changing tide for Class III/IV spreads. Volume was strong with just over 2,000 Class III contracts changing hands and open interest rising by 516 contracts. Speculative money is long and buy-side hedgers are, in some cases, capitulating into ownership as the six-day rally for futures accelerated yesterday.
Spot block cheese made a new 2024 high price too yesterday. The prior top was $1.9800. Yesterday the block cheese price settled at $1.9825 on 4 trades. Barrel cheese was also higher yesterday closing at $2.0225 on 3 trades – still 10.25 cents below it’s 2024 high price. The combination of spot price strength this week and continued discussions around tight milk – exacerbated by bird flu still ripping through US dairies – emboldened market bulls and catapulted the futures market. But markets rarely go straight up and yesterday’s capitulation may be just that – a final, hail Mary attempted to get some price ownership. The dizzying effect of momentary panic that leave logic and reason at the door. Class III and Cheese are opening lower this morning. The lack of follow-thru buying thus far is notable, but expect a good two sided trade to emerge as we head into the weekend.
We do have a problem on US dairy farms. In fact, it’s not just one problem – it’s several. Slaughter is off (see below) yet the herd isn’t growing (it’s flattening out) and headline milk production is still expected to be lower. Next week we’ll get May’s milk production and we’re expecting down 0.5%. In May. Granted, Milk production per cow rebounded to positive in Mar/Apr and feed costs are dramatically lower. Still, we could suggest that lower slaughter numbers are normal as milk prices rise. But that may be missing the big picture.
There are few replacement animals out there and the ones you can get your hands on will cost you dearly (reports are now over $3,000 per animal). How do you combat this? Herds get older. Producers slow culling and hold onto older animals. While that would have it’s own host of issues in a normal year, this issue is complicated in 2024 because of Avian Flu. The worst cases of the illness hit the the older animals.
In other words, low dairy cow slaughter this year may be the first time we’ve seen heifer inventories or lack thereof - materially impact slaughter rates. If that is the case, it is a sign that issues on the dairy farm and issues with milk production are not a July or August problem. They’re more likely a 2024/2025 problem. Maybe longer. Demand has a say and prices can still fall in this environment, but underpinning the whole deal will be this perpetual issue on the dairy farm.
Now for the most recent data: dairy cow slaughter in the U.S. continues to be weak. Slaughter volume during the memorial holiday week was 17.14% below year-ago levels, reducing the year-to-date slaughter volume to a 13.44% deficit from year-ago levels. The 4-week rolling total is currently 15.55% below year-ago levels. The holiday saw limited slaughter levels overall with total cattle slaughter being down 5.19% from last year’s levels.


Butter and NFDM markets were mixed yesterday on lighter volume once again and appear rather stable this morning as the trade weighs domestic fundamentals ahead of next week’s GDT auction event. SGX futures are pointing towards a 2.7% decrease in the GDT price index. Futures have been projecting a decline in GDT prices for the last several events. Butter/AMF futures remain the expected drivers of the weakness, but volume has been minimal so there may be some overestimation here.
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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