CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - March 12, 2025
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Cheese buyers go more aggressive Tuesday as Block cheese gained 3.75 cents on 7 trades. Barrel cheese finished up 4 cents on 3 trades. It’s one thing to move the market up without trading – that happens occasionally in the spot cheese market. But when the price moves higher with good trading it kind of legitimizes the idea that there is good demand for cheese – at least around current levels. And although trade wars impacting dairy loom large in the foreground, so far they’ve been more bark than bite.
And that should not be a shock. Often there is a demand response to price. And while we believe “value” is a four-letter word in commodity markets, US spot cheese prices fell to levels last week hard to ignore. The rest of the world is trading above $2.00 and new US cheese producing plant capacity has yet to overwhelm the market with fresh loads. Domestic demand may be softer than we expected or softer than we’d like to see, but it’s not dead. And this morning it becomes apparent to us that – despite the rhetoric around weaker demand over the past week - any would-be US cheese buyers are once again pitted against the world bidding for cheese.
Class III and Cheese closed mostly higher yesterday – but off their intraday highs – as the forward curve has some bit of price premium already built in. Over 2,300 Class III and 648 Cheese contracts changed hands with open interest increasing for both (more so on Class III). Nearby prices are firm to start today and after last week’s rout that appears to be the path of least resistance this morning.
Class IV, Butter and NFDM markets were all higher as well Tuesday. Spot butter moved 2 cents higher on 22 trades yesterday underpinning the idea that last week’s sell off to a new 4-year low ($2.2500) was overdone. It also underscores the idea that this $2.30 level may have some staying power. It does not change the fact that cream remains quite abundant and despite some modest firming for cream prices late last week, churns are running full.
Spot NFDM has fallen farther than some at StoneX thought was possible, but posted the second day of modest gains yesterday. The 0.25 to $116.000 on 4 trades yesterday helped underpin the futures market, which bounced from April to December on good volume and rising open interest (372 volume, +68 OI). Likely some “bottom picking” going on here regardless of whether or not the market has actually bottomed. There’s that 4 letter word again: value. Buyers see value here. If the market rallied to $1.40 on supply side concerns here in the US, the decline over the past month or two was the demand vote. Wait-and-see worked, but we may be entering a point at which wait-and-see becomes let’s get something done.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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