
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

After an attempt to push higher on Monday last week, spot barrels ended up nearly two cents lower on the week after finishing 4.5 cents lower on Friday as it nears the lows made earlier in March. Spot blocks were down only a ½ cent on Friday but finished nearby 8 cents lower on the week and made new 2024 lows. Class III futures volume remained strong with over 2,000 contracts trading as open interest rose by 288 contracts seeing a good mix of new buying and selling as nearby futures make fresh lows. Cheese futures saw a good bump in volume with over 1000 contracts trading with open interest only rising by 61 contracts.
Weaker than expected US milk production did little to deter Class III and Cheese but we’ll get more fundamental today with the USDA releasing February Cold Storage report. There could be some surprises. I’m assuming still pretty weak cheese production in February was up 0.1% (compared to -1.2% in January) and butter production up 4.8% (compared to +6.4% in January) while also factoring in improved cheese disappearance (both domestic and export) and a slowdown for domestic butter disappearance from the crazy +10.8% in January. The net result is a little heavier cheese and butter stocks than what we saw in January, but I wouldn’t be surprised if stocks for any product came in well above or below forecast given how strange this market has been.

Spot butter once again failed last week to take out key resistance @ $2.85 falling 1.25 cents on Friday to $2.8025 and 1.5 cents lower on the week. It still remained on the higher end of the range over the last month. Futures buyers still remained aggressive in getting coverage on as prices pushed over 1 cent higher through the end of the year with 102 contracts trading. Q2 futures on an average actually finished 5 cents higher on the week even with spot prices finishing 1.5 cents lower, hinting to a market that is still fearful of $3.00 butter once again
Massive, absolutely massive. New Zealand’s milk equivalent exports in February were up 37.9% from last year, which was much stronger than the +4.9% forecast. The surge was driven by WMP going to China, Algeria and to a lesser extent, UAE. While NZ milk production was stronger than expected in February, the extremely strong exports outpace the production gains and inventories must have been pulled lower. My estimated milk equivalent stocks went from being down 7.5% YoY in January to being down 14.2% in February.

The sell of in nonfat accelerated last week with spot prices falling 5.5 cents to their lowest prices since September 2024 as week demand continues to loom the market and US milk production flows into more Class IV products as cheese producers limit production due to weak demand as well. Nonfat saw decent volumes most of the week. 248 contracts traded as open interest rose by 39 contracts as prices were steadily lower Friday after a strong selloff for most of the week.
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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