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Early Morning Update - March 25, 2025

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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Nearby Class III and Cheese futures started lower Monday in a nod to the release to a heavier than expected Milk Production number from the USDA late Friday afternoon, but that didn’t last. We say nod because Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 were higher to start the session despite the repot indication that on the whole producers are doing better at overcoming production headwinds (bird flu, costs, etc.) Strength in the spot cheese market stymied any early futures weakness as the nearby contracts held – and then bounced off – recent trading lows. Barrels jumped 8 cents on 4 trades while blocks gained 1.75 cents on 11. So there’s cheese out there, but the takeaway yesterday was the willingness to stand in here and own that cheese in the low-$1.60s.

“Value” is a 4-letter word in commodity trading, but there appears to be a demand response to price here in the low-$1.60s. While domestic cheese demand remains underwhelming or somewhat quiet here in March, export inquiries are red-hot. How much of this turns into export sales remains to be see, but we expect strong export data when we get it 2 months from now.

Overall, the Class III and Cheese trade yesterday seemed to be at least partially driven by short-covering nearby. Unable to stick new lows for this move, it appears that some traders are slowly stepping away from short bets and end-user demand still remains active in nearby contracts. We expect a choppy trade for Class III and Cheese today.

Dry whey futures have quietly moved higher recently, likely buyer hedging as futures have entered oversold territory. The whey futures forward curve has transformed into a ‘carry structure’ over the last two months indicating a well supplied market vs. demand but the market may have found a good equilibrium price point around the 50 cent level.

CME Spot butter found some ground to start the week rising 1.75 cents on 1 trade as it looks to test the higher end of the range this month @ 2.34. As we mentioned yesterday, sentiment remains bearish but spot and futures prices have remained rather neutral this month as it lacks fresh bearish news to make new lows. Butter futures volume has been bleak relative to what we saw early last week as prices consolidate. 174 contracts traded yesterday as open interest rose by 65 contracts.

Spot nonfat continues to steadily inch lower as it traded down to a fresh low yesterday to 1.1425. Futures yesterday stayed relatively steady around Friday’s lows as bearish sentiment weighs on the market. EU SMP prices have consolidated this last week but GDT Pulse prices today will do little to give CME NFDM support.  SMP at GDT Pulse this morning fell 1.6% from the last Pulse event to $2,750 ($1.247/lb) and 3.3% from Fonterra’s medium Heat SMP from GDT last week. Although US prices are cheaper than GDT, weaker SMP demand globally and cheaper EU SMP prices have hurt US exports.

  • Dairy

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