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Early Morning Update - May 2, 2024

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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Class III and Cheese consolidated Tuesday’s big rally on Wednesday with a mostly lower finish for prices. Trade volumes were solid with over 2,100 Class III and 565 Cheese contracts changing hands. Price weakness was more prevalent nearby as spot cheese left something to be desired following Tuesday’s barrel market push to $1.8550. Yesterday a single offer to sell barrel cheese at that price went unfilled. Block cheese moved up 2 cents to a new 2024 high price print of 1.7650 with no offers to sell block yesterday. Bursts of buying energy as we saw on Tuesday can quiet down and that was the story for spot cheese yesterday. While we’d expect some fresh cheese to free up here in the form of new selling, the market seems able to clear product nicely in the $1.70s today.

Class III and Cheese charts are bullish. That coincides with a fundamental change (improvement) in demand for cheese over the past few weeks. In the halls of the Sheraton in Chicago this week (ADPI Conference), there was a modest change in perceptions of the markets’ potential. As the bearish demand story we’ve dealt with all year subsides slightly, concerns around available milk supplies found a way into more conversations. Ultimately, this dynamic can best be characterized as “skepticism” around price strength. Yes, there are a number of valid reasons that prices could fall again. And our view is that short-term weakness on Class III and Cheese futures are in the cards this morning. But trying to talk a market down can be a troublesome path to walk. The broader price action matters. Don’t argue with the tape.

CME butter made a new 2024 high yesterday trading up 4 cents on 7 trades to $3.005. The previous high was at $3.00 made last Monday. Butter futures volume was also its strongest in over a month with 364 contracts trading as open interest only rose by 25 contracts if we remove April option exercises. April’s final prices ended up settling higher as the last week of NDPSR was 4.44 cents high that forecast. The forward curve is now well above $3.00 through the end of the year even with anecdotal comments of ample cream supplies, OK production, and inventories that are building but concerns continue to revolve around availability in the second half of the year.

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Nonfat futures saw their strongest volume all week with 195 contracts trading as open interest rose slightly by 19 contracts as volume remained between May-Aug24. NDPSR also came in weaker than expected for nonfat as prices were nearly 3 cents lower than expected but with increasing volume. May24 futures eventually traded down to unchanged after settlement as the rest of the forward curve finish higher on the heels of a slightly better spot market which rose ½ cent to $1.125, its highest price in two weeks.

  • Dairy

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