CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - September 10, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Barrel cheese was a penny higher in the spot market yesterday. Just a penny higher. No trades, one bid, and no noise coming from blocks… Yet Class III rallied 70 cents/CWT, nearly limit up, in October. And that aggressive buying is still flowing through into today’s early-morning trading as we’re up 5-10 cents across the board. The price movement in spot is not the highlight of the day, but just the fact that it was unexpectedly present at these elevated levels is what's telling. Spot equivalent pricing brings Class III to be valued at $23.76, which futures traders were not expecting to see. That led to aggressive buying with open interest up 289 contracts, with more weight on the nearby months (Oct and Nov OI was over 100 contracts each).
Butter futures firmed Monday on light volume (just 80 contracts) as spot pushed 1.5 cents higher without trading (3 unfilled bids). We wrote yesterday: While the recovery was sponsored by a firming spot market, we’d also point out that last week October butter – as well as other contracts – fell below their 20-day moving average. While this in and of itself is not necessarily bearish technical price action, we point it out because the 20-day moving average is more or less the “mean” short term. And if prices revert to the “mean”, well then that’s our explanation of Friday’s action. We expect some choppy trading for butter futures to start the week with the 20-moving average acting as a sticking point unless spot butter makes a more material move up or down. We’ll stick with this narrative today.
NFDM futures rebuffed Friday’s modest weakness and rallied aggressively Monday underpinning Class IV and sending people scratching their heads. Spot NFDM pushed 1.5 cents higher to close at $1.3800 on 4 trades. There was chatter about a tender from Asia looking for SMP in the $1.24-$1.27 range. Despite that interest being below the market, perhaps it was perceived as some foreshadowing of more demand underlying the market than meets the eye. We don’t know. What we do know is that NFDM futures pushed mostly 1-3 cents higher through December 2025 on good volume of 280 contracts and rising open interest (up 60 contracts). That puts the 2025 January to December price average at $138.075 – right up against the high of $138.100 from two weeks ago. Markets can do whatever they want, but 2025 futures may be rubbing up against some level of resistance here as the entire curve remains quite stable.
The crop progress report was released yesterday, showing that corn harvest is getting started with 5% completed so far. That is slightly above last year’s pace of 4% and above the 5 year average of 3%. There was some elevated dryness and heat across the mid-west, which slightly quickened the pace of maturity. Below is a chart of the percentage of corn harvested by state.
As Arlan Suderman mentions in the news article posted above, the WASDE report will be released on Thursday. And it is the first one with estimates coming from physically weighing field samples. This will give the trade a more accurate picture of yields. “Throughout August, some parts of the Midwest were cooler which favors larger seed sizes; Other parts were dryer which favors smaller seed sizes. This is the biggest risk for a surprise coming from the report.”
- Dairy
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August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.
Mike Castle
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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