
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

The dairy complex was mostly mixed to start the week. With the trade looking forward to yesterday’s Dairy Products report and this morning’s GDT auction event, futures price action distributed sideways. We braced for some surprises in the October Dairy Products report, and there were a few, but nothing that changes the fundamental view of the market. That cheese production was close to forecast, although Cheddar was weaker than expected while mozzarella was stronger which leans a little bullish. Butter production came in exactly as forecast although the USDA revised down September a little. Combined NFDM+SMP production was close to forecast but the mix was tilted more toward NFDM and less toward SMP than what Nate was plugging in. Whey product production was close to, or a little below forecast.


Powder stocks were all lower than forecast and all of them were down from September’s levels. We have to remember that this only represents inventory held by manufacturers, if an end user or trader buys the powder, it no longer shows up in these inventory numbers and we’ve likely seen some stock piling by end users/traders as prices started to turn around.
There was little impetus early in Monday’s session to push markets one way or the other as traders mostly squared up positions around current levels. For instance, over 1,300 Class III contracts traded and open interest rose by 51 contracts. Over 400 Cheese contracts changed hands and open interest increased by 17 contracts. This is a consolidation of the markets around current levels with little in the way of aggression. From a price behavior standpoint, yesterday marked the second day of modest gains for the January Class III and Cheese futures contract. That said, we’ll call the current markets more or less stable for now.
Spot butter pushed 2.25 cents higher yesterday but spot strength fell on deaf ears as futures finished mixed on light volume (137 contracts trading). 2024 butter contracts have been trading in a 4-5 cent range (calendar average) for months now and recent spot market action has pushed the 2024 price average near recent price highs at $252.175 from January to December ($255.375 back on September 22). We expect a mixed to lower trade for butter futures early today.
NFDM futures were in the same sideways boat yesterday. The 2024 price average has flopped both sides of $130.000 (for the calendar average) over the past 6-7 weeks and remains somewhat pinned to the $130.000 level. The January to December pack average closed at $130.650 yesterday, which is a safe spot amid mixed demand news, lighter than expected stocks and call it flat to lower milk production. Today’s GDT event may offer additional direction, but for now NFDM futures remain rather rangebound near the lower end of recent trading range.
SGX futures have generally been bullish relative to the actual prices. The last two auctions have not seen an increase in the GDT price index. However, currently futures are pricing in a 5.8% increase for the GDT index which is one of the larger expected increases we have seen this season. The GDT pulse auction on Tuesday was bearish for SMP and rather flat for WMP.

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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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